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Match DNA · 2015 · Apr 18, 2015 · Dr. Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy ACA-VDCA Cricket Stadium, Visakhapatnam

Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Delhi Daredevils

Delhi Daredevils won by 4 runs.

POTM · JP Duminy

1st innings

Delhi Daredevils

167/4

20 overs

2nd innings

Sunrisers Hyderabad

163/8

20 overs

Win probability — chasing team

100%50%0%0 overs20 overs

Runs per over

over 1over 20180

Where the swing came from

Decomposes total absolute |Δp(chase wins)| = 3.46 across the chase (120 balls). Phases partition cleanly; overlays don't.

Powerplay (overs 1-6)17%|Δp| 0.57
Middle overs (7-15)32%|Δp| 1.12
Late-overs execution (16-20)51%|Δp| 1.77

Event overlays — share % can intersect phases above

Wicket falls (overlay)29%|Δp| 1.01
Bowling-change windows (overlay)98%|Δp| 3.40

Who actually won this

Per-player WP-swing attribution across the chase. Every ball's ΔP is credited to BOTH the batter (who took / didn't take the run) and the bowler (who delivered the ball). Total absolute swing = 353.52.

What if?

counterfactual · v1 (pre-event approximation)

Reframes the biggest swings as "what if this hadn't happened" — the WP if the event had gone the other way is approximated by the pre-event state. Not a hard prediction.

Counterfactual · over 19.4

22-point swing on this ball.

Actual after

14%

If not

37%

Counterfactual · over 19.2

A Ashish Reddy fell — run out at 159/7.

Actual after

46%

If not

65%

Counterfactual · over 6.3

DA Warner fell — caught and bowled at 51/2.

Actual after

50%

If not

66%

Three biggest swings

over 19.4 22%

WP: 37% → 14%

over 19.2 19%

WP: 65% → 46%

over 6.3 16%

WP: 66% → 50%

Wicket falls

1st innings (Delhi Daredevils)

  • MA Agarwalcaught · 15/1 · 2.1
  • SS Iyercaught · 93/2 · 11.3
  • JP Duminybowled · 132/3 · 15.6
  • Yuvraj Singhcaught · 132/4 · 16.1

2nd innings (Sunrisers Hyderabad)

  • S Dhawanbowled · 50/1 · 6.1
  • DA Warnercaught and bowled · 51/2 · 6.3
  • KL Rahulbowled · 89/3 · 12.4
  • NV Ojhacaught · 120/4 · 15.6
  • RS Boparacaught · 128/5 · 16.4
  • EJG Morganbowled · 129/6 · 16.6
  • A Ashish Reddyrun out · 159/7 · 19.2
  • KV Sharmacaught · 163/8 · 19.6