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Match DNA · 2013 · May 1, 2013 · Shaheed Veer Narayan Singh International Stadium, Raipur

Delhi Daredevils vs Kolkata Knight Riders

Delhi Daredevils won by 7 wickets.

POTM · DA Warner

1st innings

Kolkata Knight Riders

136/7

20 overs

2nd innings

Delhi Daredevils

137/3

17.5 overs

Win probability — chasing team

100%50%0%0 overs17.5 overs

Runs per over

over 1over 20160

Where the swing came from

Decomposes total absolute |Δp(chase wins)| = 1.35 across the chase (107 balls). Phases partition cleanly; overlays don't.

Powerplay (overs 1-6)38%|Δp| 0.51
Middle overs (7-15)47%|Δp| 0.63
Late-overs execution (16-20)16%|Δp| 0.21

Event overlays — share % can intersect phases above

Wicket falls (overlay)18%|Δp| 0.25
Bowling-change windows (overlay)98%|Δp| 1.33

Who actually won this

Per-player WP-swing attribution across the chase. Every ball's ΔP is credited to BOTH the batter (who took / didn't take the run) and the bowler (who delivered the ball). Total absolute swing = 171.07.

What if?

counterfactual · v1 (pre-event approximation)

Reframes the biggest swings as "what if this hadn't happened" — the WP if the event had gone the other way is approximated by the pre-event state. Not a hard prediction.

Counterfactual · over 4.1

DPMD Jayawardene fell — caught at 27/2.

Actual after

69%

If not

82%

Counterfactual · over 3.4

V Sehwag fell — caught at 23/1.

Actual after

80%

If not

89%

Counterfactual · over 7.4

7-point swing on this ball.

Actual after

73%

If not

67%

Three biggest swings

over 4.1 12%

WP: 82% → 69%

over 3.4 9%

WP: 89% → 80%

over 7.4 7%

WP: 67% → 73%

Wicket falls

1st innings (Kolkata Knight Riders)

  • G Gambhirrun out · 4/1 · 0.2
  • MS Bislabowled · 16/2 · 2.3
  • YK Pathancaught · 37/3 · 5.5
  • EJG Morgancaught · 48/4 · 7.4
  • JH Kalliscaught · 50/5 · 8.3
  • DB Dascaught · 84/6 · 15.3
  • S Narwalcaught · 114/7 · 18.2

2nd innings (Delhi Daredevils)

  • V Sehwagcaught · 23/1 · 3.4
  • DPMD Jayawardenecaught · 27/2 · 4.1
  • UBT Chandcaught · 122/3 · 16.5