Match DNA · 2012 · May 10, 2012 · Rajiv Gandhi International Stadium, Uppal, Hyderabad

Deccan Chargers vs Delhi Daredevils

Delhi Daredevils won by 9 wickets.

POTM · DA Warner

1st innings

Deccan Chargers

187/4

20 overs

2nd innings

Delhi Daredevils

193/1

16.4 overs

Win probability — chasing team

Runs per over

Where the swing came from

Decomposes total absolute |Δp(chase wins)| = 1.50 across the chase (103 balls). Phases partition cleanly; overlays don't.

Powerplay (overs 1-6)65%|Δp| 0.97

Middle overs (7-15)34%|Δp| 0.51

Late-overs execution (16-20)2%|Δp| 0.02

Event overlays — share % can intersect phases above

Wicket falls (overlay)10%|Δp| 0.16

Bowling-change windows (overlay)75%|Δp| 1.12

Who actually won this

Per-player WP-swing attribution across the chase. Every ball's ΔP is credited to BOTH the batter (who took / didn't take the run) and the bowler (who delivered the ball). Total absolute swing = 160.93.

Batters

Sorted by absolute swing they were on for

Bowlers

Sorted by absolute swing they delivered into

What if?

counterfactual · v1 (pre-event approximation)

Reframes the biggest swings as "what if this hadn't happened" — the WP if the event had gone the other way is approximated by the pre-event state. Not a hard prediction.

Counterfactual · over 0.2

V Sehwag fell — caught at 4/1.

Actual after

24%

If not

↑ 39%

Counterfactual · over 5.3

8-point swing on this ball.

Actual after

56%

If not

↓ 48%

Counterfactual · over 5.2

8-point swing on this ball.

Actual after

48%

If not

↓ 40%

Three biggest swings

over 0.2↓ 16%

WP: 39% → 24%

over 5.3↑ 8%

WP: 48% → 56%

over 5.2↑ 8%

WP: 40% → 48%

Wicket falls

1st innings (Deccan Chargers)

DJ Harriscaught · 28/1 · 4.5
KC Sangakkaracaught · 33/2 · 5.5
S Dhawanrun out · 159/3 · 17.3
CL Whitecaught · 179/4 · 19.4

2nd innings (Delhi Daredevils)

V Sehwagcaught · 4/1 · 0.2

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