Match DNA · 2021 · Apr 21, 2021 · MA Chidambaram Stadium, Chepauk, Chennai, Chennai
Punjab Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad
Sunrisers Hyderabad won by 9 wickets.
POTM · JM Bairstow
1st innings
Punjab Kings
120/10
19.4 overs
2nd innings
Sunrisers Hyderabad
121/1
18.4 overs
Win probability — chasing team
Runs per over
Where the swing came from
Decomposes total absolute |Δp(chase wins)| = 0.33 across the chase (115 balls). Phases partition cleanly; overlays don't.
Event overlays — share % can intersect phases above
Who actually won this
Per-player WP-swing attribution across the chase. Every ball's ΔP is credited to BOTH the batter (who took / didn't take the run) and the bowler (who delivered the ball). Total absolute swing = 76.33.
Batters
Sorted by absolute swing they were on for
Bowlers
Sorted by absolute swing they delivered into
Mohammed Shami
Punjab Kings
47.2swingHurt (-44.8)0 wkt · 12 balls62% of swingArshdeep Singh
Punjab Kings
9.1swingHurt (-6.3)0 wkt · 24 balls12% of swingFA Allen
Punjab Kings
9.1swingHelped (+1.7)1 wkt · 25 balls12% of swingDJ Hooda
Punjab Kings
6.0swingHurt (-0.3)0 wkt · 24 balls8% of swingM Ashwin
Punjab Kings
3.3swingHurt (-0.0)0 wkt · 25 balls4% of swingMC Henriques
Punjab Kings
1.7swingHurt (-0.3)0 wkt · 6 balls2% of swing
What if?
counterfactual · v1 (pre-event approximation)Reframes the biggest swings as "what if this hadn't happened" — the WP if the event had gone the other way is approximated by the pre-event state. Not a hard prediction.
Counterfactual · over 18.5
3-point swing on this ball.
Actual after
100%
If not
↓ 97%
Counterfactual · over 18.2
3-point swing on this ball.
Actual after
96%
If not
↓ 94%
Counterfactual · over 10.1
DA Warner fell — caught at 73/1.
Actual after
96%
If not
↑ 98%
Three biggest swings
WP: 97% → 100%
WP: 94% → 96%
WP: 98% → 96%
Wicket falls
1st innings (Punjab Kings)
- KL Rahulcaught · 15/1 · 3.1
- MA Agarwalcaught · 39/2 · 6.6
- N Pooranrun out · 39/3 · 7.1
- CH Gaylelbw · 47/4 · 8.4
- DJ Hoodalbw · 63/5 · 11.3
- MC Henriquesstumped · 82/6 · 13.4
- FA Allencaught · 101/7 · 16.4
- M Shahrukh Khancaught · 110/8 · 18.1
- M Ashwincaught · 114/9 · 19.1
- Mohammed Shamirun out · 120/10 · 19.4
2nd innings (Sunrisers Hyderabad)
- DA Warnercaught · 73/1 · 10.1