Match DNA · 2016 · May 22, 2016 · Shaheed Veer Narayan Singh International Stadium, Raipur
Delhi Daredevils vs Royal Challengers Bangalore
Royal Challengers Bangalore won by 6 wickets.
POTM · V Kohli
1st innings
Delhi Daredevils
138/8
20 overs
2nd innings
Royal Challengers Bangalore
139/4
18.1 overs
Win probability — chasing team
Runs per over
Where the swing came from
Decomposes total absolute |Δp(chase wins)| = 1.46 across the chase (110 balls). Phases partition cleanly; overlays don't.
Event overlays — share % can intersect phases above
Who actually won this
Per-player WP-swing attribution across the chase. Every ball's ΔP is credited to BOTH the batter (who took / didn't take the run) and the bowler (who delivered the ball). Total absolute swing = 180.65.
Batters
Sorted by absolute swing they were on for
CH Gayle
Royal Challengers Bangalore
47.4swingHelped (+22.7)1 runs · 4 balls26% of swingV Kohli
Royal Challengers Bangalore
38.1swingHelped (+19.5)54 runs · 45 balls21% of swingKL Rahul
Royal Challengers Bangalore
34.4swingHelped (+14.4)38 runs · 23 balls19% of swingAB de Villiers
Royal Challengers Bangalore
28.2swingHurt (-9.8)11 runs · 9 balls16% of swingSR Watson
Royal Challengers Bangalore
18.1swingHurt (-6.5)14 runs · 18 balls10% of swingSTR Binny
Royal Challengers Bangalore
14.4swingHelped (+9.7)21 runs · 12 balls8% of swing
Bowlers
Sorted by absolute swing they delivered into
Z Khan
Delhi Daredevils
73.9swingHurt (-31.0)1 wkt · 25 balls41% of swingCH Morris
Delhi Daredevils
46.4swingHurt (-6.0)1 wkt · 19 balls26% of swingCR Brathwaite
Delhi Daredevils
22.2swingHurt (-3.5)1 wkt · 19 balls12% of swingA Mishra
Delhi Daredevils
21.9swingHurt (-10.8)0 wkt · 24 balls12% of swingP Negi
Delhi Daredevils
12.8swingHelped (+2.9)1 wkt · 18 balls7% of swingJ Yadav
Delhi Daredevils
3.6swingHurt (-1.6)0 wkt · 6 balls2% of swing
What if?
counterfactual · v1 (pre-event approximation)Reframes the biggest swings as "what if this hadn't happened" — the WP if the event had gone the other way is approximated by the pre-event state. Not a hard prediction.
Counterfactual · over 2.4
AB de Villiers fell — caught at 17/2.
Actual after
64%
If not
↑ 78%
Counterfactual · over 1.1
CH Gayle fell — bowled at 5/1.
Actual after
74%
If not
↑ 85%
Counterfactual · over 18.1
6-point swing on this ball.
Actual after
100%
If not
↓ 94%
Three biggest swings
WP: 78% → 64%
WP: 85% → 74%
WP: 94% → 100%
Wicket falls
1st innings (Delhi Daredevils)
- RR Pantcaught · 11/1 · 1.2
- KK Naircaught · 42/2 · 5.3
- SV Samsoncaught · 71/3 · 9.3
- SW Billingscaught · 81/4 · 11.2
- P Negicaught · 96/5 · 14.4
- CR Brathwaitecaught · 98/6 · 14.7
- Q de Kockcaught · 107/7 · 16.1
- J Yadavrun out · 138/8 · 19.6
2nd innings (Royal Challengers Bangalore)
- CH Gaylebowled · 5/1 · 1.1
- AB de Villierscaught · 17/2 · 2.4
- KL Rahulbowled · 83/3 · 10.1
- SR Watsoncaught · 111/4 · 14.6