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Match DNA · 2016 · May 20, 2016 · Shaheed Veer Narayan Singh International Stadium, Raipur

Delhi Daredevils vs Sunrisers Hyderabad

Delhi Daredevils won by 6 wickets.

POTM · KK Nair

1st innings

Sunrisers Hyderabad

158/7

20 overs

2nd innings

Delhi Daredevils

161/4

20 overs

Win probability — chasing team

100%50%0%0 overs20 overs

Runs per over

over 1over 20150

Where the swing came from

Decomposes total absolute |Δp(chase wins)| = 3.68 across the chase (125 balls). Phases partition cleanly; overlays don't.

Powerplay (overs 1-6)20%|Δp| 0.72
Middle overs (7-15)17%|Δp| 0.61
Late-overs execution (16-20)64%|Δp| 2.35

Event overlays — share % can intersect phases above

Wicket falls (overlay)16%|Δp| 0.58
Bowling-change windows (overlay)97%|Δp| 3.57

Who actually won this

Per-player WP-swing attribution across the chase. Every ball's ΔP is credited to BOTH the batter (who took / didn't take the run) and the bowler (who delivered the ball). Total absolute swing = 391.78.

What if?

counterfactual · v1 (pre-event approximation)

Reframes the biggest swings as "what if this hadn't happened" — the WP if the event had gone the other way is approximated by the pre-event state. Not a hard prediction.

Counterfactual · over 19.6

100-point swing on this ball.

Actual after

100%

If not

0%

Counterfactual · over 18.4

23-point swing on this ball.

Actual after

22%

If not

45%

Counterfactual · over 18.5

19-point swing on this ball.

Actual after

3%

If not

22%

Three biggest swings

over 19.6 100%

WP: 0% → 100%

over 18.4 23%

WP: 45% → 22%

over 18.5 19%

WP: 22% → 3%

Wicket falls

1st innings (Sunrisers Hyderabad)

  • S Dhawanrun out · 46/1 · 5.6
  • DJ Hoodarun out · 48/2 · 6.4
  • Yuvraj Singhbowled · 66/3 · 9.3
  • MC Henriquescaught · 105/4 · 13.3
  • DA Warnercaught · 117/5 · 15.2
  • EJG Morgancaught · 132/6 · 17.3
  • B Kumarrun out · 158/7 · 19.6

2nd innings (Delhi Daredevils)

  • Q de Kockcaught · 9/1 · 1.5
  • RR Pantrun out · 82/2 · 11.4
  • JP Duminycaught · 117/3 · 16.1
  • CR Brathwaitecaught · 143/4 · 18.2