Match DNA · 2016 · May 14, 2016 · M Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bangalore
Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Gujarat Lions
Royal Challengers Bangalore won by 144 runs.
POTM · AB de Villiers
1st innings
Royal Challengers Bangalore
248/3
20 overs
2nd innings
Gujarat Lions
104/10
18.4 overs
Win probability — chasing team
Runs per over
Where the swing came from
Decomposes total absolute |Δp(chase wins)| = 0.07 across the chase (119 balls). Phases partition cleanly; overlays don't.
Event overlays — share % can intersect phases above
Who actually won this
Per-player WP-swing attribution across the chase. Every ball's ΔP is credited to BOTH the batter (who took / didn't take the run) and the bowler (who delivered the ball). Total absolute swing = 54.67.
Batters
Sorted by absolute swing they were on for
DR Smith
Gujarat Lions
49.3swingHurt (-48.3)7 runs · 6 balls90% of swingBB McCullum
Gujarat Lions
2.3swingHurt (-1.4)12 runs · 13 balls4% of swingRA Jadeja
Gujarat Lions
2.1swingHelped (+0.5)23 runs · 20 balls4% of swingKD Karthik
Gujarat Lions
0.5swingHurt (-0.5)2 runs · 4 balls1% of swingAJ Finch
Gujarat Lions
0.1swingHelped (+0.0)44 runs · 42 balls0% of swingDJ Bravo
Gujarat Lions
0.1swingHurt (-0.1)1 runs · 2 balls0% of swing
Bowlers
Sorted by absolute swing they delivered into
STR Binny
Royal Challengers Bangalore
48.6swingHelped (+47.1)0 wkt · 12 balls89% of swingYS Chahal
Royal Challengers Bangalore
2.7swingHelped (+0.7)3 wkt · 24 balls5% of swingS Aravind
Royal Challengers Bangalore
2.3swingHelped (+1.2)1 wkt · 18 balls4% of swingCJ Jordan
Royal Challengers Bangalore
0.9swingHelped (+0.8)4 wkt · 20 balls2% of swingSR Watson
Royal Challengers Bangalore
0.2swingHelped (+0.2)0 wkt · 7 balls0% of swingVR Aaron
Royal Challengers Bangalore
0.1swingHurt (-0.0)0 wkt · 14 balls0% of swing
What if?
counterfactual · v1 (pre-event approximation)Reframes the biggest swings as "what if this hadn't happened" — the WP if the event had gone the other way is approximated by the pre-event state. Not a hard prediction.
Counterfactual · over 1.5
DR Smith fell — bowled at 9/1.
Actual after
1%
If not
↑ 3%
Counterfactual · over 4.6
BB McCullum fell — caught at 37/2.
Actual after
1%
If not
↑ 2%
Counterfactual · over 4.3
1-point swing on this ball.
Actual after
3%
If not
↓ 2%
Three biggest swings
WP: 3% → 1%
WP: 2% → 1%
WP: 2% → 3%
Wicket falls
1st innings (Royal Challengers Bangalore)
- CH Gaylebowled · 19/1 · 3.5
- V Kohlicaught · 248/2 · 19.5
- SR Watsoncaught · 248/3 · 19.6
2nd innings (Gujarat Lions)
- DR Smithbowled · 9/1 · 1.5
- BB McCullumcaught · 37/2 · 4.6
- KD Karthikcaught · 44/3 · 6.5
- RA Jadejacaught and bowled · 44/4 · 6.6
- DJ Bravolbw · 47/5 · 7.5
- AD Nathbowled · 68/6 · 11.2
- P Kumarbowled · 69/7 · 12.1
- DS Kulkarnibowled · 74/8 · 12.6
- AJ Finchcaught · 104/9 · 18.3
- S Kaushikcaught · 104/10 · 18.4