Match DNA · 2015 · May 14, 2015 · Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai
Mumbai Indians vs Kolkata Knight Riders
Mumbai Indians won by 5 runs.
POTM · HH Pandya
1st innings
Mumbai Indians
171/4
20 overs
2nd innings
Kolkata Knight Riders
166/7
20 overs
Win probability — chasing team
Runs per over
Where the swing came from
Decomposes total absolute |Δp(chase wins)| = 3.09 across the chase (126 balls). Phases partition cleanly; overlays don't.
Event overlays — share % can intersect phases above
Who actually won this
Per-player WP-swing attribution across the chase. Every ball's ΔP is credited to BOTH the batter (who took / didn't take the run) and the bowler (who delivered the ball). Total absolute swing = 315.03.
Batters
Sorted by absolute swing they were on for
YK Pathan
Kolkata Knight Riders
87.0swingHurt (-2.6)55 runs · 40 balls28% of swingG Gambhir
Kolkata Knight Riders
70.4swingHurt (-10.6)39 runs · 30 balls22% of swingRV Uthappa
Kolkata Knight Riders
52.8swingHurt (-1.0)26 runs · 21 balls17% of swingShakib Al Hasan
Kolkata Knight Riders
38.7swingHelped (+3.3)24 runs · 16 balls12% of swingSA Yadav
Kolkata Knight Riders
27.8swingHurt (-0.9)11 runs · 5 balls9% of swingPP Chawla
Kolkata Knight Riders
22.7swingHurt (-22.7)3 runs · 8 balls7% of swing
Bowlers
Sorted by absolute swing they delivered into
SL Malinga
Mumbai Indians
91.9swingHelped (+37.3)1 wkt · 24 balls29% of swingHarbhajan Singh
Mumbai Indians
65.5swingHelped (+19.1)2 wkt · 27 balls21% of swingR Vinay Kumar
Mumbai Indians
56.0swingHurt (-5.2)1 wkt · 24 balls18% of swingMJ McClenaghan
Mumbai Indians
53.6swingHelped (+12.2)1 wkt · 27 balls17% of swingJ Suchith
Mumbai Indians
37.6swingHurt (-6.1)1 wkt · 12 balls12% of swingHH Pandya
Mumbai Indians
10.4swingHurt (-7.4)0 wkt · 6 balls3% of swing
What if?
counterfactual · v1 (pre-event approximation)Reframes the biggest swings as "what if this hadn't happened" — the WP if the event had gone the other way is approximated by the pre-event state. Not a hard prediction.
Counterfactual · over 18.5
17-point swing on this ball.
Actual after
2%
If not
↑ 20%
Counterfactual · over 5.6
MK Pandey fell — run out at 46/2.
Actual after
41%
If not
↑ 58%
Counterfactual · over 5.4
RV Uthappa fell — caught at 45/1.
Actual after
58%
If not
↑ 73%
Three biggest swings
WP: 20% → 2%
WP: 58% → 41%
WP: 73% → 58%
Wicket falls
1st innings (Mumbai Indians)
- PA Patelcaught · 29/1 · 4.2
- LMP Simmonscaught · 42/2 · 5.5
- AT Rayuducaught · 47/3 · 6.3
- RG Sharmabowled · 79/4 · 11.4
2nd innings (Kolkata Knight Riders)
- RV Uthappacaught · 45/1 · 5.4
- MK Pandeyrun out · 46/2 · 5.6
- G Gambhirbowled · 88/3 · 10.6
- Shakib Al Hasancaught · 118/4 · 14.2
- AD Russellcaught · 128/5 · 15.5
- SA Yadavcaught · 144/6 · 17.1
- YK Pathancaught · 160/7 · 19.1