Match DNA · 2015 · May 6, 2015 · M Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bangalore
Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kings XI Punjab
Royal Challengers Bangalore won by 138 runs.
POTM · CH Gayle
1st innings
Royal Challengers Bangalore
226/3
20 overs
2nd innings
Kings XI Punjab
88/10
13.4 overs
Win probability — chasing team
Runs per over
Where the swing came from
Decomposes total absolute |Δp(chase wins)| = 0.17 across the chase (83 balls). Phases partition cleanly; overlays don't.
Event overlays — share % can intersect phases above
Who actually won this
Per-player WP-swing attribution across the chase. Every ball's ΔP is credited to BOTH the batter (who took / didn't take the run) and the bowler (who delivered the ball). Total absolute swing = 59.77.
Batters
Sorted by absolute swing they were on for
M Vijay
Kings XI Punjab
46.3swingHurt (-46.2)2 runs · 6 balls77% of swingM Vohra
Kings XI Punjab
6.0swingHurt (-3.2)5 runs · 4 balls10% of swingWP Saha
Kings XI Punjab
4.2swingHelped (+1.7)18 runs · 11 balls7% of swingGJ Maxwell
Kings XI Punjab
1.6swingHurt (-1.6)1 runs · 5 balls3% of swingDA Miller
Kings XI Punjab
0.9swingHurt (-0.4)7 runs · 10 balls1% of swingAR Patel
Kings XI Punjab
0.3swingHelped (+0.2)40 runs · 21 balls1% of swing
Bowlers
Sorted by absolute swing they delivered into
MA Starc
Royal Challengers Bangalore
50.3swingHelped (+45.3)4 wkt · 26 balls84% of swingS Aravind
Royal Challengers Bangalore
5.7swingHelped (+1.3)4 wkt · 24 balls10% of swingHV Patel
Royal Challengers Bangalore
3.5swingHelped (+3.4)1 wkt · 12 balls6% of swingYS Chahal
Royal Challengers Bangalore
0.3swingHelped (+0.0)1 wkt · 16 balls1% of swingD Wiese
Royal Challengers Bangalore
0.0swingHelped (+0.0)0 wkt · 6 balls0% of swing
What if?
counterfactual · v1 (pre-event approximation)Reframes the biggest swings as "what if this hadn't happened" — the WP if the event had gone the other way is approximated by the pre-event state. Not a hard prediction.
Counterfactual · over 0.5
M Vohra fell — caught at 6/1.
Actual after
4%
If not
↑ 8%
Counterfactual · over 2.2
M Vijay fell — bowled at 19/2.
Actual after
3%
If not
↑ 5%
Counterfactual · over 1.2
2-point swing on this ball.
Actual after
6%
If not
↓ 5%
Three biggest swings
WP: 8% → 4%
WP: 5% → 3%
WP: 5% → 6%
Wicket falls
1st innings (Royal Challengers Bangalore)
- V Kohlibowled · 119/1 · 11.2
- CH Gaylecaught and bowled · 190/2 · 16.7
- KD Karthikbowled · 199/3 · 17.4
2nd innings (Kings XI Punjab)
- M Vohracaught · 6/1 · 0.5
- M Vijaybowled · 19/2 · 2.2
- GJ Maxwellbowled · 20/3 · 3.1
- WP Sahacaught · 33/4 · 5.4
- DA Millerbowled · 34/5 · 5.6
- GJ Baileybowled · 39/6 · 7.1
- MG Johnsonbowled · 49/7 · 8.3
- Anureet Singhbowled · 49/8 · 8.5
- Karanveer Singhbowled · 65/9 · 10.4
- Sandeep Sharmacaught and bowled · 88/10 · 13.4