Match DNA · 2015 · Apr 25, 2015 · MA Chidambaram Stadium, Chepauk, Chennai
Chennai Super Kings vs Kings XI Punjab
Chennai Super Kings won by 97 runs.
POTM · BB McCullum
1st innings
Chennai Super Kings
192/3
20 overs
2nd innings
Kings XI Punjab
95/9
20 overs
Win probability — chasing team
Runs per over
Where the swing came from
Decomposes total absolute |Δp(chase wins)| = 0.77 across the chase (121 balls). Phases partition cleanly; overlays don't.
Event overlays — share % can intersect phases above
Who actually won this
Per-player WP-swing attribution across the chase. Every ball's ΔP is credited to BOTH the batter (who took / didn't take the run) and the bowler (who delivered the ball). Total absolute swing = 98.70.
Batters
Sorted by absolute swing they were on for
M Vijay
Kings XI Punjab
51.9swingHurt (-16.0)39 runs · 33 balls53% of swingSE Marsh
Kings XI Punjab
17.8swingHurt (-7.6)10 runs · 10 balls18% of swingV Sehwag
Kings XI Punjab
12.7swingHurt (-12.4)2 runs · 3 balls13% of swingGJ Bailey
Kings XI Punjab
6.6swingHurt (-6.4)1 runs · 3 balls7% of swingDA Miller
Kings XI Punjab
5.6swingHurt (-5.3)3 runs · 9 balls6% of swingAR Patel
Kings XI Punjab
2.5swingHurt (-0.9)9 runs · 10 balls3% of swing
Bowlers
Sorted by absolute swing they delivered into
IC Pandey
Chennai Super Kings
44.9swingHelped (+27.8)1 wkt · 13 balls45% of swingA Nehra
Chennai Super Kings
24.2swingHelped (+10.3)2 wkt · 24 balls25% of swingRA Jadeja
Chennai Super Kings
14.0swingHelped (+9.1)3 wkt · 24 balls14% of swingMM Sharma
Chennai Super Kings
8.3swingHurt (-1.4)1 wkt · 18 balls8% of swingR Ashwin
Chennai Super Kings
7.0swingHelped (+4.0)2 wkt · 25 balls7% of swingDJ Bravo
Chennai Super Kings
0.3swingHelped (+0.2)0 wkt · 18 balls0% of swing
What if?
counterfactual · v1 (pre-event approximation)Reframes the biggest swings as "what if this hadn't happened" — the WP if the event had gone the other way is approximated by the pre-event state. Not a hard prediction.
Counterfactual · over 0.6
V Sehwag fell — caught at 4/1.
Actual after
16%
If not
↑ 29%
Counterfactual · over 5.1
SE Marsh fell — lbw at 35/2.
Actual after
14%
If not
↑ 24%
Counterfactual · over 6.3
GJ Bailey fell — caught at 40/3.
Actual after
7%
If not
↑ 13%
Three biggest swings
WP: 29% → 16%
WP: 24% → 14%
WP: 13% → 7%
Wicket falls
1st innings (Chennai Super Kings)
- DR Smithbowled · 50/1 · 4.4
- BB McCullumcaught · 116/2 · 12.1
- SK Rainarun out · 144/3 · 15.2
2nd innings (Kings XI Punjab)
- V Sehwagcaught · 4/1 · 0.6
- SE Marshlbw · 35/2 · 5.1
- GJ Baileycaught · 40/3 · 6.3
- DA Millercaught · 55/4 · 8.6
- M Vijaycaught · 55/5 · 9.2
- AR Patelstumped · 66/6 · 11.4
- MG Johnsoncaught · 69/7 · 12.2
- WP Sahacaught · 90/8 · 17.4
- Anureet Singhcaught · 94/9 · 19.1