Match DNA · 2015 · Apr 23, 2015 · Feroz Shah Kotla, Delhi
Delhi Daredevils vs Mumbai Indians
Delhi Daredevils won by 37 runs.
POTM · SS Iyer
1st innings
Delhi Daredevils
190/4
20 overs
2nd innings
Mumbai Indians
153/9
20 overs
Win probability — chasing team
Runs per over
Where the swing came from
Decomposes total absolute |Δp(chase wins)| = 2.03 across the chase (127 balls). Phases partition cleanly; overlays don't.
Event overlays — share % can intersect phases above
Who actually won this
Per-player WP-swing attribution across the chase. Every ball's ΔP is credited to BOTH the batter (who took / didn't take the run) and the bowler (who delivered the ball). Total absolute swing = 222.46.
Batters
Sorted by absolute swing they were on for
LMP Simmons
Mumbai Indians
55.6swingHurt (-29.6)17 runs · 16 balls25% of swingPA Patel
Mumbai Indians
50.1swingHelped (+2.1)29 runs · 20 balls23% of swingAT Rayudu
Mumbai Indians
31.0swingHelped (+4.2)31 runs · 22 balls14% of swingRG Sharma
Mumbai Indians
27.8swingHurt (-3.6)30 runs · 24 balls13% of swingUBT Chand
Mumbai Indians
24.5swingHurt (-3.5)18 runs · 14 balls11% of swingKA Pollard
Mumbai Indians
17.1swingHurt (-4.6)10 runs · 8 balls8% of swing
Bowlers
Sorted by absolute swing they delivered into
NM Coulter-Nile
Delhi Daredevils
63.8swingHelped (+20.3)1 wkt · 27 balls29% of swingA Mishra
Delhi Daredevils
38.3swingHelped (+6.7)2 wkt · 25 balls17% of swingImran Tahir
Delhi Daredevils
32.1swingHelped (+15.1)3 wkt · 26 balls14% of swingDJ Muthuswami
Delhi Daredevils
28.2swingHelped (+20.0)1 wkt · 12 balls13% of swingAD Mathews
Delhi Daredevils
27.2swingHelped (+6.0)2 wkt · 12 balls12% of swingS Nadeem
Delhi Daredevils
17.9swingHurt (-6.1)0 wkt · 20 balls8% of swing
What if?
counterfactual · v1 (pre-event approximation)Reframes the biggest swings as "what if this hadn't happened" — the WP if the event had gone the other way is approximated by the pre-event state. Not a hard prediction.
Counterfactual · over 4.2
LMP Simmons fell — caught at 35/1.
Actual after
28%
If not
↑ 44%
Counterfactual · over 5.6
PA Patel fell — caught at 48/2.
Actual after
21%
If not
↑ 35%
Counterfactual · over 8.2
UBT Chand fell — stumped at 68/3.
Actual after
17%
If not
↑ 28%
Three biggest swings
WP: 44% → 28%
WP: 35% → 21%
WP: 28% → 17%
Wicket falls
1st innings (Delhi Daredevils)
- MA Agarwalcaught · 2/1 · 0.3
- SS Iyerbowled · 156/2 · 16.4
- AD Mathewscaught · 174/3 · 17.7
- Yuvraj Singhcaught · 187/4 · 19.3
2nd innings (Mumbai Indians)
- LMP Simmonscaught · 35/1 · 4.2
- PA Patelcaught · 48/2 · 5.6
- UBT Chandstumped · 68/3 · 8.2
- KA Pollardcaught · 82/4 · 10.2
- RG Sharmacaught · 131/5 · 15.6
- HH Pandyacaught · 131/6 · 16.1
- AT Rayuducaught · 135/7 · 16.3
- MJ McClenaghancaught · 135/8 · 16.4
- Harbhajan Singhcaught · 153/9 · 19.4