Match DNA · 2015 · Apr 9, 2015 · MA Chidambaram Stadium, Chepauk, Chennai
Chennai Super Kings vs Delhi Daredevils
Chennai Super Kings won by 1 run.
POTM · A Nehra
1st innings
Chennai Super Kings
150/7
20 overs
2nd innings
Delhi Daredevils
149/9
20 overs
Win probability — chasing team
Runs per over
Where the swing came from
Decomposes total absolute |Δp(chase wins)| = 2.59 across the chase (124 balls). Phases partition cleanly; overlays don't.
Event overlays — share % can intersect phases above
Who actually won this
Per-player WP-swing attribution across the chase. Every ball's ΔP is credited to BOTH the batter (who took / didn't take the run) and the bowler (who delivered the ball). Total absolute swing = 284.56.
Batters
Sorted by absolute swing they were on for
JA Morkel
Delhi Daredevils
73.9swingHelped (+8.7)77 runs · 59 balls26% of swingMA Agarwal
Delhi Daredevils
61.6swingHelped (+16.4)15 runs · 12 balls22% of swingKM Jadhav
Delhi Daredevils
35.7swingHurt (-7.6)20 runs · 20 balls13% of swingYuvraj Singh
Delhi Daredevils
24.4swingHurt (-5.7)9 runs · 6 balls9% of swingSS Iyer
Delhi Daredevils
23.5swingHurt (-13.4)7 runs · 7 balls8% of swingNM Coulter-Nile
Delhi Daredevils
19.1swingHurt (-8.9)5 runs · 4 balls7% of swing
Bowlers
Sorted by absolute swing they delivered into
A Nehra
Chennai Super Kings
114.1swingHelped (+35.2)4 wkt · 25 balls40% of swingIC Pandey
Chennai Super Kings
50.4swingHurt (-3.9)1 wkt · 24 balls18% of swingMM Sharma
Chennai Super Kings
48.1swingHurt (-3.9)1 wkt · 25 balls17% of swingR Ashwin
Chennai Super Kings
42.8swingHelped (+11.3)1 wkt · 25 balls15% of swingDJ Bravo
Chennai Super Kings
29.1swingHelped (+11.2)2 wkt · 26 balls10% of swing
What if?
counterfactual · v1 (pre-event approximation)Reframes the biggest swings as "what if this hadn't happened" — the WP if the event had gone the other way is approximated by the pre-event state. Not a hard prediction.
Counterfactual · over 2.6
MA Agarwal fell — caught at 20/2.
Actual after
53%
If not
↑ 69%
Counterfactual · over 4.6
SS Iyer fell — caught at 39/3.
Actual after
50%
If not
↑ 66%
Counterfactual · over 2.3
CM Gautam fell — caught at 15/1.
Actual after
65%
If not
↑ 79%
Three biggest swings
WP: 69% → 53%
WP: 66% → 50%
WP: 79% → 65%
Wicket falls
1st innings (Chennai Super Kings)
- BB McCullumcaught · 20/1 · 1.2
- SK Rainabowled · 38/2 · 3.6
- DR Smithcaught · 71/3 · 8.1
- F du Plessiscaught · 100/4 · 12.2
- RA Jadejastumped · 117/5 · 15.2
- DJ Bravolbw · 120/6 · 16.4
- MS Dhonicaught · 148/7 · 19.5
2nd innings (Delhi Daredevils)
- CM Gautamcaught · 15/1 · 2.3
- MA Agarwalcaught · 20/2 · 2.6
- SS Iyercaught · 39/3 · 4.6
- KM Jadhavcaught · 87/4 · 13.1
- Yuvraj Singhcaught · 99/5 · 14.4
- JP Duminybowled · 106/6 · 15.4
- NM Coulter-Nilebowled · 123/7 · 17.5
- A Mishrarun out · 129/8 · 18.5
- Imran Tahircaught · 137/9 · 19.3