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Match DNA · 2013 · May 15, 2013 · JSCA International Stadium Complex, Ranchi

Kolkata Knight Riders vs Pune Warriors

Pune Warriors won by 7 runs.

POTM · MK Pandey

1st innings

Pune Warriors

170/4

20 overs

2nd innings

Kolkata Knight Riders

163/7

20 overs

Win probability — chasing team

100%50%0%0 overs20 overs

Runs per over

over 1over 20180

Where the swing came from

Decomposes total absolute |Δp(chase wins)| = 3.05 across the chase (122 balls). Phases partition cleanly; overlays don't.

Powerplay (overs 1-6)29%|Δp| 0.88
Middle overs (7-15)27%|Δp| 0.83
Late-overs execution (16-20)44%|Δp| 1.34

Event overlays — share % can intersect phases above

Wicket falls (overlay)27%|Δp| 0.83
Bowling-change windows (overlay)96%|Δp| 2.92

Who actually won this

Per-player WP-swing attribution across the chase. Every ball's ΔP is credited to BOTH the batter (who took / didn't take the run) and the bowler (who delivered the ball). Total absolute swing = 310.65.

What if?

counterfactual · v1 (pre-event approximation)

Reframes the biggest swings as "what if this hadn't happened" — the WP if the event had gone the other way is approximated by the pre-event state. Not a hard prediction.

Counterfactual · over 1.6

MS Bisla fell — lbw at 17/1.

Actual after

46%

If not

64%

Counterfactual · over 3.6

JH Kallis fell — bowled at 25/2.

Actual after

26%

If not

41%

Counterfactual · over 17.5

YK Pathan fell — obstructing the field at 148/6.

Actual after

51%

If not

65%

Three biggest swings

over 1.6 18%

WP: 64% → 46%

over 3.6 15%

WP: 41% → 26%

over 17.5 13%

WP: 65% → 51%

Wicket falls

1st innings (Pune Warriors)

  • RV Uthappabowled · 41/1 · 5.4
  • AJ Finchbowled · 97/2 · 12.5
  • MK Pandeyrun out · 162/3 · 19.3
  • Yuvraj Singhcaught · 170/4 · 19.6

2nd innings (Kolkata Knight Riders)

  • MS Bislalbw · 17/1 · 1.6
  • JH Kallisbowled · 25/2 · 3.6
  • G Gambhircaught · 29/3 · 4.4
  • RN ten Doeschaterun out · 127/4 · 15.5
  • MK Tiwarycaught · 128/5 · 16.2
  • YK Pathanobstructing the field · 148/6 · 17.5
  • R Bhatiarun out · 160/7 · 19.4