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Match DNA · 2013 · Apr 28, 2013 · Shaheed Veer Narayan Singh International Stadium, Raipur

Delhi Daredevils vs Pune Warriors

Delhi Daredevils won by 15 runs.

POTM · DA Warner

1st innings

Delhi Daredevils

164/5

20 overs

2nd innings

Pune Warriors

149/4

20 overs

Win probability — chasing team

100%50%0%0 overs20 overs

Runs per over

over 1over 20210

Where the swing came from

Decomposes total absolute |Δp(chase wins)| = 2.43 across the chase (122 balls). Phases partition cleanly; overlays don't.

Powerplay (overs 1-6)22%|Δp| 0.53
Middle overs (7-15)37%|Δp| 0.91
Late-overs execution (16-20)41%|Δp| 1.00

Event overlays — share % can intersect phases above

Wicket falls (overlay)22%|Δp| 0.53
Bowling-change windows (overlay)95%|Δp| 2.30

Who actually won this

Per-player WP-swing attribution across the chase. Every ball's ΔP is credited to BOTH the batter (who took / didn't take the run) and the bowler (who delivered the ball). Total absolute swing = 254.14.

What if?

counterfactual · v1 (pre-event approximation)

Reframes the biggest swings as "what if this hadn't happened" — the WP if the event had gone the other way is approximated by the pre-event state. Not a hard prediction.

Counterfactual · over 17.6

Yuvraj Singh fell — caught at 130/4.

Actual after

37%

If not

52%

Counterfactual · over 10.6

AJ Finch fell — caught at 78/2.

Actual after

57%

If not

71%

Counterfactual · over 17.3

LJ Wright fell — caught at 128/3.

Actual after

56%

If not

70%

Three biggest swings

over 17.6 16%

WP: 52% → 37%

over 10.6 14%

WP: 71% → 57%

over 17.3 13%

WP: 70% → 56%

Wicket falls

1st innings (Delhi Daredevils)

  • DPMD Jayawardenecaught · 20/1 · 4.1
  • V Sehwagcaught · 68/2 · 9.6
  • UBT Chandcaught · 68/3 · 10.2
  • BJ Rohrercaught · 96/4 · 13.5
  • KM Jadhavcaught · 159/5 · 19.4

2nd innings (Pune Warriors)

  • RV Uthappacaught · 76/1 · 10.2
  • AJ Finchcaught · 78/2 · 10.6
  • LJ Wrightcaught · 128/3 · 17.3
  • Yuvraj Singhcaught · 130/4 · 17.6