Match DNA · 2013 · Apr 28, 2013 · Shaheed Veer Narayan Singh International Stadium, Raipur
Delhi Daredevils vs Pune Warriors
Delhi Daredevils won by 15 runs.
POTM · DA Warner
1st innings
Delhi Daredevils
164/5
20 overs
2nd innings
Pune Warriors
149/4
20 overs
Win probability — chasing team
Runs per over
Where the swing came from
Decomposes total absolute |Δp(chase wins)| = 2.43 across the chase (122 balls). Phases partition cleanly; overlays don't.
Event overlays — share % can intersect phases above
Who actually won this
Per-player WP-swing attribution across the chase. Every ball's ΔP is credited to BOTH the batter (who took / didn't take the run) and the bowler (who delivered the ball). Total absolute swing = 254.14.
Batters
Sorted by absolute swing they were on for
RV Uthappa
Pune Warriors
62.8swingHelped (+10.8)38 runs · 34 balls25% of swingYuvraj Singh
Pune Warriors
53.8swingHurt (-6.3)33 runs · 25 balls21% of swingAJ Finch
Pune Warriors
51.3swingHurt (-3.8)40 runs · 34 balls20% of swingLJ Wright
Pune Warriors
40.3swingHurt (-14.0)19 runs · 18 balls16% of swingSPD Smith
Pune Warriors
30.1swingHurt (-20.9)17 runs · 8 balls12% of swingM Manhas
Pune Warriors
15.8swingHurt (-15.8)2 runs · 4 balls6% of swing
Bowlers
Sorted by absolute swing they delivered into
IK Pathan
Delhi Daredevils
68.8swingHelped (+3.0)2 wkt · 24 balls27% of swingUT Yadav
Delhi Daredevils
65.9swingHelped (+32.0)2 wkt · 25 balls26% of swingA Nehra
Delhi Daredevils
56.0swingHelped (+26.1)0 wkt · 25 balls22% of swingM Morkel
Delhi Daredevils
40.7swingHurt (-15.9)0 wkt · 25 balls16% of swingS Nadeem
Delhi Daredevils
22.8swingHelped (+4.8)0 wkt · 24 balls9% of swing
What if?
counterfactual · v1 (pre-event approximation)Reframes the biggest swings as "what if this hadn't happened" — the WP if the event had gone the other way is approximated by the pre-event state. Not a hard prediction.
Counterfactual · over 17.6
Yuvraj Singh fell — caught at 130/4.
Actual after
37%
If not
↑ 52%
Counterfactual · over 10.6
AJ Finch fell — caught at 78/2.
Actual after
57%
If not
↑ 71%
Counterfactual · over 17.3
LJ Wright fell — caught at 128/3.
Actual after
56%
If not
↑ 70%
Three biggest swings
WP: 52% → 37%
WP: 71% → 57%
WP: 70% → 56%
Wicket falls
1st innings (Delhi Daredevils)
- DPMD Jayawardenecaught · 20/1 · 4.1
- V Sehwagcaught · 68/2 · 9.6
- UBT Chandcaught · 68/3 · 10.2
- BJ Rohrercaught · 96/4 · 13.5
- KM Jadhavcaught · 159/5 · 19.4
2nd innings (Pune Warriors)
- RV Uthappacaught · 76/1 · 10.2
- AJ Finchcaught · 78/2 · 10.6
- LJ Wrightcaught · 128/3 · 17.3
- Yuvraj Singhcaught · 130/4 · 17.6