Match DNA · 2013 · Apr 23, 2013 · M Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bangalore
Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Pune Warriors
Royal Challengers Bangalore won by 130 runs.
POTM · CH Gayle
1st innings
Royal Challengers Bangalore
263/5
20 overs
2nd innings
Pune Warriors
133/9
20 overs
Win probability — chasing team
Runs per over
Where the swing came from
Decomposes total absolute |Δp(chase wins)| = 0.04 across the chase (122 balls). Phases partition cleanly; overlays don't.
Event overlays — share % can intersect phases above
Who actually won this
Per-player WP-swing attribution across the chase. Every ball's ΔP is credited to BOTH the batter (who took / didn't take the run) and the bowler (who delivered the ball). Total absolute swing = 52.96.
Batters
Sorted by absolute swing they were on for
RV Uthappa
Pune Warriors
49.4swingHurt (-49.4)0 runs · 2 balls93% of swingAJ Finch
Pune Warriors
1.4swingHurt (-0.2)18 runs · 15 balls3% of swingSPD Smith
Pune Warriors
0.7swingHelped (+0.0)42 runs · 32 balls1% of swingYuvraj Singh
Pune Warriors
0.6swingHurt (-0.1)16 runs · 14 balls1% of swingLJ Wright
Pune Warriors
0.4swingHurt (-0.1)8 runs · 4 balls1% of swingMR Marsh
Pune Warriors
0.3swingHurt (-0.1)26 runs · 24 balls1% of swing
Bowlers
Sorted by absolute swing they delivered into
M Kartik
Royal Challengers Bangalore
49.9swingHelped (+49.2)1 wkt · 20 balls94% of swingR Rampaul
Royal Challengers Bangalore
1.2swingHelped (+0.4)2 wkt · 25 balls2% of swingJD Unadkat
Royal Challengers Bangalore
0.8swingHelped (+0.3)2 wkt · 24 balls2% of swingRP Singh
Royal Challengers Bangalore
0.8swingHelped (+0.1)1 wkt · 24 balls2% of swingR Vinay Kumar
Royal Challengers Bangalore
0.3swingHelped (+0.0)1 wkt · 24 balls1% of swingCH Gayle
Royal Challengers Bangalore
0.0swingHelped (+0.0)2 wkt · 6 balls0% of swing
What if?
counterfactual · v1 (pre-event approximation)Reframes the biggest swings as "what if this hadn't happened" — the WP if the event had gone the other way is approximated by the pre-event state. Not a hard prediction.
Counterfactual · over 0.2
RV Uthappa fell — caught at 0/1.
Actual after
1%
If not
↑ 1%
Counterfactual · over 4.2
AJ Finch fell — caught at 28/2.
Actual after
0%
If not
↑ 1%
Counterfactual · over 5.2
LJ Wright fell — caught at 38/3.
Actual after
0%
If not
↑ 1%
Three biggest swings
WP: 1% → 1%
WP: 1% → 0%
WP: 1% → 0%
Wicket falls
1st innings (Royal Challengers Bangalore)
- TM Dilshancaught · 167/1 · 13.4
- V Kohlirun out · 207/2 · 16.2
- AB de Villierscaught · 251/3 · 18.5
- SS Tiwarycaught · 262/4 · 19.4
- R Rampaulcaught · 263/5 · 19.6
2nd innings (Pune Warriors)
- RV Uthappacaught · 0/1 · 0.2
- AJ Finchcaught · 28/2 · 4.2
- LJ Wrightcaught · 38/3 · 5.2
- Yuvraj Singhcaught · 42/4 · 5.4
- SPD Smithcaught · 100/5 · 13.3
- MR Marshbowled · 119/6 · 16.2
- B Kumarcaught · 127/7 · 18.5
- AG Murtazastumped · 132/8 · 19.3
- IC Pandeybowled · 132/9 · 19.5