Match DNA · 2012 · May 20, 2012 · Sawai Mansingh Stadium, Jaipur

Rajasthan Royals vs Mumbai Indians

Mumbai Indians won by 10 wickets.

POTM · DR Smith

1st innings

Rajasthan Royals

162/6

20 overs

2nd innings

Mumbai Indians

163/0

18 overs

Win probability — chasing team

Runs per over

Where the swing came from

Decomposes total absolute |Δp(chase wins)| = 1.02 across the chase (117 balls). Phases partition cleanly; overlays don't.

Powerplay (overs 1-6)56%|Δp| 0.57

Middle overs (7-15)40%|Δp| 0.41

Late-overs execution (16-20)4%|Δp| 0.04

Event overlays — share % can intersect phases above

Wicket falls (overlay)0%|Δp| 0.00

Bowling-change windows (overlay)82%|Δp| 0.83

Who actually won this

Per-player WP-swing attribution across the chase. Every ball's ΔP is credited to BOTH the batter (who took / didn't take the run) and the bowler (who delivered the ball). Total absolute swing = 115.31.

Batters

Sorted by absolute swing they were on for

Bowlers

Sorted by absolute swing they delivered into

What if?

counterfactual · v1 (pre-event approximation)

Reframes the biggest swings as "what if this hadn't happened" — the WP if the event had gone the other way is approximated by the pre-event state. Not a hard prediction.

Counterfactual · over 0.5

7-point swing on this ball.

Actual after

68%

If not

↓ 61%

Counterfactual · over 6.6

5-point swing on this ball.

Actual after

78%

If not

↓ 74%

Counterfactual · over 3.6

4-point swing on this ball.

Actual after

67%

If not

↓ 63%

Three biggest swings

over 0.5↑ 7%

WP: 61% → 68%

over 6.6↑ 5%

WP: 74% → 78%

over 3.6↑ 4%

WP: 63% → 67%

Wicket falls

1st innings (Rajasthan Royals)

R Dravidcaught · 9/1 · 1.5
AM Rahanecaught · 31/2 · 5.2
STR Binnyrun out · 84/3 · 11.2
SR Watsoncaught · 105/4 · 13.8
AL Menariacaught and bowled · 148/5 · 18.6
DH Yagnikcaught and bowled · 160/6 · 19.5

2nd innings (Mumbai Indians) · no wickets fell

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