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Match DNA · 2012 · May 1, 2012 · Barabati Stadium, Cuttack

Deccan Chargers vs Pune Warriors

Deccan Chargers won by 13 runs.

POTM · KC Sangakkara

1st innings

Deccan Chargers

186/4

20 overs

2nd innings

Pune Warriors

173/5

20 overs

Win probability — chasing team

100%50%0%0 overs20 overs

Runs per over

over 1over 20250

Where the swing came from

Decomposes total absolute |Δp(chase wins)| = 2.26 across the chase (124 balls). Phases partition cleanly; overlays don't.

Powerplay (overs 1-6)24%|Δp| 0.55
Middle overs (7-15)44%|Δp| 0.99
Late-overs execution (16-20)32%|Δp| 0.72

Event overlays — share % can intersect phases above

Wicket falls (overlay)15%|Δp| 0.35
Bowling-change windows (overlay)92%|Δp| 2.07

Who actually won this

Per-player WP-swing attribution across the chase. Every ball's ΔP is credited to BOTH the batter (who took / didn't take the run) and the bowler (who delivered the ball). Total absolute swing = 254.69.

What if?

counterfactual · v1 (pre-event approximation)

Reframes the biggest swings as "what if this hadn't happened" — the WP if the event had gone the other way is approximated by the pre-event state. Not a hard prediction.

Counterfactual · over 12.4

SC Ganguly fell — caught at 96/3.

Actual after

28%

If not

41%

Counterfactual · over 11.4

MJ Clarke fell — run out at 90/2.

Actual after

39%

If not

52%

Counterfactual · over 18.5

RV Uthappa fell — caught at 158/4.

Actual after

1%

If not

10%

Three biggest swings

over 12.4 13%

WP: 41% → 28%

over 11.4 13%

WP: 52% → 39%

over 18.5 9%

WP: 10% → 1%

Wicket falls

1st innings (Deccan Chargers)

  • PA Patelbowled · 0/1 · 0.1
  • S Dhawanbowled · 23/2 · 4.4
  • KC Sangakkarabowled · 180/3 · 18.7
  • CL Whitecaught · 180/4 · 19.1

2nd innings (Pune Warriors)

  • MK Pandeycaught · 0/1 · 0.1
  • MJ Clarkerun out · 90/2 · 11.4
  • SC Gangulycaught · 96/3 · 12.4
  • RV Uthappacaught · 158/4 · 18.5
  • M Manhascaught · 172/5 · 19.5