Match DNA · 2012 · May 1, 2012 · Barabati Stadium, Cuttack
Deccan Chargers vs Pune Warriors
Deccan Chargers won by 13 runs.
POTM · KC Sangakkara
1st innings
Deccan Chargers
186/4
20 overs
2nd innings
Pune Warriors
173/5
20 overs
Win probability — chasing team
Runs per over
Where the swing came from
Decomposes total absolute |Δp(chase wins)| = 2.26 across the chase (124 balls). Phases partition cleanly; overlays don't.
Event overlays — share % can intersect phases above
Who actually won this
Per-player WP-swing attribution across the chase. Every ball's ΔP is credited to BOTH the batter (who took / didn't take the run) and the bowler (who delivered the ball). Total absolute swing = 254.69.
Batters
Sorted by absolute swing they were on for
SC Ganguly
Pune Warriors
65.4swingHelped (+0.1)48 runs · 43 balls26% of swingMJ Clarke
Pune Warriors
56.9swingHelped (+3.5)42 runs · 31 balls22% of swingSPD Smith
Pune Warriors
52.8swingHelped (+6.2)48 runs · 27 balls21% of swingRV Uthappa
Pune Warriors
50.9swingHurt (-31.1)27 runs · 18 balls20% of swingMK Pandey
Pune Warriors
28.8swingHurt (-28.8)0 runs · 1 balls11% of swingM Manhas
Pune Warriors
0.0swingHurt (-0.0)7 runs · 4 balls0% of swing
Bowlers
Sorted by absolute swing they delivered into
DW Steyn
Deccan Chargers
63.3swingHurt (-11.6)0 wkt · 25 balls25% of swingA Ashish Reddy
Deccan Chargers
44.0swingHelped (+29.9)1 wkt · 19 balls17% of swingV Pratap Singh
Deccan Chargers
40.7swingHelped (+4.0)2 wkt · 24 balls16% of swingAnkit Sharma
Deccan Chargers
37.7swingHelped (+31.3)1 wkt · 12 balls15% of swingA Mishra
Deccan Chargers
25.1swingHurt (-3.6)0 wkt · 18 balls10% of swingS Dhawan
Deccan Chargers
25.0swingHelped (+6.9)1 wkt · 6 balls10% of swing
What if?
counterfactual · v1 (pre-event approximation)Reframes the biggest swings as "what if this hadn't happened" — the WP if the event had gone the other way is approximated by the pre-event state. Not a hard prediction.
Counterfactual · over 12.4
SC Ganguly fell — caught at 96/3.
Actual after
28%
If not
↑ 41%
Counterfactual · over 11.4
MJ Clarke fell — run out at 90/2.
Actual after
39%
If not
↑ 52%
Counterfactual · over 18.5
RV Uthappa fell — caught at 158/4.
Actual after
1%
If not
↑ 10%
Three biggest swings
WP: 41% → 28%
WP: 52% → 39%
WP: 10% → 1%
Wicket falls
1st innings (Deccan Chargers)
- PA Patelbowled · 0/1 · 0.1
- S Dhawanbowled · 23/2 · 4.4
- KC Sangakkarabowled · 180/3 · 18.7
- CL Whitecaught · 180/4 · 19.1
2nd innings (Pune Warriors)
- MK Pandeycaught · 0/1 · 0.1
- MJ Clarkerun out · 90/2 · 11.4
- SC Gangulycaught · 96/3 · 12.4
- RV Uthappacaught · 158/4 · 18.5
- M Manhascaught · 172/5 · 19.5