Match DNA · 2012 · Apr 27, 2012 · Feroz Shah Kotla, Delhi
Delhi Daredevils vs Mumbai Indians
Delhi Daredevils won by 37 runs.
POTM · V Sehwag
1st innings
Delhi Daredevils
207/5
20 overs
2nd innings
Mumbai Indians
170/9
20 overs
Win probability — chasing team
Runs per over
Where the swing came from
Decomposes total absolute |Δp(chase wins)| = 1.41 across the chase (123 balls). Phases partition cleanly; overlays don't.
Event overlays — share % can intersect phases above
Who actually won this
Per-player WP-swing attribution across the chase. Every ball's ΔP is credited to BOTH the batter (who took / didn't take the run) and the bowler (who delivered the ball). Total absolute swing = 175.29.
Batters
Sorted by absolute swing they were on for
AT Rayudu
Mumbai Indians
44.1swingHelped (+14.1)64 runs · 41 balls25% of swingAC Blizzard
Mumbai Indians
42.1swingHurt (-42.1)0 runs · 3 balls24% of swingKD Karthik
Mumbai Indians
27.4swingHurt (-4.2)40 runs · 28 balls16% of swingKA Pollard
Mumbai Indians
23.9swingHelped (+1.7)16 runs · 9 balls14% of swingSR Tendulkar
Mumbai Indians
11.9swingHurt (-5.1)7 runs · 7 balls7% of swingRG Sharma
Mumbai Indians
7.8swingHelped (+1.1)12 runs · 6 balls5% of swing
Bowlers
Sorted by absolute swing they delivered into
IK Pathan
Delhi Daredevils
61.1swingHelped (+31.6)2 wkt · 25 balls35% of swingS Nadeem
Delhi Daredevils
47.6swingHelped (+4.6)2 wkt · 24 balls27% of swingAB Agarkar
Delhi Daredevils
31.6swingHurt (-1.6)1 wkt · 25 balls18% of swingM Morkel
Delhi Daredevils
20.6swingHelped (+18.8)2 wkt · 25 balls12% of swingUT Yadav
Delhi Daredevils
14.4swingHurt (-3.4)2 wkt · 25 balls8% of swing
What if?
counterfactual · v1 (pre-event approximation)Reframes the biggest swings as "what if this hadn't happened" — the WP if the event had gone the other way is approximated by the pre-event state. Not a hard prediction.
Counterfactual · over 15.1
AT Rayudu fell — caught at 139/5.
Actual after
24%
If not
↑ 36%
Counterfactual · over 12.5
KD Karthik fell — bowled at 115/4.
Actual after
21%
If not
↑ 32%
Counterfactual · over 15.2
KA Pollard fell — bowled at 139/6.
Actual after
16%
If not
↑ 24%
Three biggest swings
WP: 36% → 24%
WP: 32% → 21%
WP: 24% → 16%
Wicket falls
1st innings (Delhi Daredevils)
- DPMD Jayawardenecaught · 135/1 · 13.1
- V Sehwagcaught · 153/2 · 15.1
- IK Pathancaught · 154/3 · 15.3
- LRPL Taylorlbw · 195/4 · 18.1
- Y Nagarlbw · 195/5 · 18.2
2nd innings (Mumbai Indians)
- AC Blizzardcaught · 0/1 · 0.3
- SR Tendulkarcaught · 19/2 · 2.3
- RG Sharmacaught · 19/3 · 3.1
- KD Karthikbowled · 115/4 · 12.5
- AT Rayuducaught · 139/5 · 15.1
- KA Pollardbowled · 139/6 · 15.2
- RJ Petersonrun out · 144/7 · 16.2
- Harbhajan Singhcaught · 168/8 · 19.3
- SL Malingabowled · 170/9 · 19.6