Match DNA · 2012 · Apr 12, 2012 · MA Chidambaram Stadium, Chepauk, Chennai
Chennai Super Kings vs Royal Challengers Bangalore
Chennai Super Kings won by 5 wickets.
POTM · F du Plessis
1st innings
Royal Challengers Bangalore
205/8
20 overs
2nd innings
Chennai Super Kings
208/5
20 overs
Win probability — chasing team
Runs per over
Where the swing came from
Decomposes total absolute |Δp(chase wins)| = 4.10 across the chase (123 balls). Phases partition cleanly; overlays don't.
Event overlays — share % can intersect phases above
Who actually won this
Per-player WP-swing attribution across the chase. Every ball's ΔP is credited to BOTH the batter (who took / didn't take the run) and the bowler (who delivered the ball). Total absolute swing = 442.42.
Batters
Sorted by absolute swing they were on for
RA Jadeja
Chennai Super Kings
100.0swingHelped (+100.0)4 runs · 1 balls23% of swingF du Plessis
Chennai Super Kings
77.4swingHelped (+22.1)71 runs · 46 balls18% of swingJA Morkel
Chennai Super Kings
76.3swingHurt (-6.7)28 runs · 7 balls17% of swingM Vijay
Chennai Super Kings
56.2swingHurt (-46.9)12 runs · 15 balls13% of swingMS Dhoni
Chennai Super Kings
54.7swingHelped (+5.1)44 runs · 26 balls12% of swingDJ Bravo
Chennai Super Kings
39.6swingHurt (-24.4)26 runs · 15 balls9% of swing
Bowlers
Sorted by absolute swing they delivered into
R Vinay Kumar
Royal Challengers Bangalore
195.1swingHurt (-62.1)1 wkt · 27 balls44% of swingDL Vettori
Royal Challengers Bangalore
62.9swingHelped (+19.1)0 wkt · 24 balls14% of swingM Muralitharan
Royal Challengers Bangalore
62.5swingHelped (+41.9)3 wkt · 24 balls14% of swingZ Khan
Royal Challengers Bangalore
45.5swingHelped (+15.0)1 wkt · 25 balls10% of swingV Kohli
Royal Challengers Bangalore
45.0swingHurt (-32.6)0 wkt · 12 balls10% of swingRR Bhatkal
Royal Challengers Bangalore
31.4swingHurt (-31.3)0 wkt · 12 balls7% of swing
What if?
counterfactual · v1 (pre-event approximation)Reframes the biggest swings as "what if this hadn't happened" — the WP if the event had gone the other way is approximated by the pre-event state. Not a hard prediction.
Counterfactual · over 19.7
100-point swing on this ball.
Actual after
100%
If not
↓ 0%
Counterfactual · over 19.2
JA Morkel fell — caught at 192/5.
Actual after
2%
If not
↑ 39%
Counterfactual · over 19.1
20-point swing on this ball.
Actual after
39%
If not
↑ 59%
Three biggest swings
WP: 0% → 100%
WP: 39% → 2%
WP: 59% → 39%
Wicket falls
1st innings (Royal Challengers Bangalore)
- MA Agarwalcaught · 53/1 · 5.3
- CH Gaylecaught · 162/2 · 16.2
- AB de Villierscaught · 174/3 · 17.2
- SS Tiwarycaught · 198/4 · 18.6
- V Kohlicaught · 198/5 · 19.1
- CA Pujarabowled · 198/6 · 19.2
- DL Vettorirun out · 199/7 · 19.4
- RR Bhatkalcaught · 199/8 · 19.5
2nd innings (Chennai Super Kings)
- M Vijaycaught and bowled · 56/1 · 6.5
- SK Rainacaught · 88/2 · 10.3
- F du Plessiscaught · 128/3 · 14.3
- MS Dhonicaught · 163/4 · 17.7
- JA Morkelcaught · 192/5 · 19.2