Match DNA · 2011 · May 20, 2011 · Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai
Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals
Rajasthan Royals won by 10 wickets.
POTM · SR Watson
1st innings
Mumbai Indians
133/5
20 overs
2nd innings
Rajasthan Royals
134/0
13.1 overs
Win probability — chasing team
Runs per over
Where the swing came from
Decomposes total absolute |Δp(chase wins)| = 0.27 across the chase (80 balls). Phases partition cleanly; overlays don't.
Event overlays — share % can intersect phases above
Who actually won this
Per-player WP-swing attribution across the chase. Every ball's ΔP is credited to BOTH the batter (who took / didn't take the run) and the bowler (who delivered the ball). Total absolute swing = 65.33.
Batters
Sorted by absolute swing they were on for
Bowlers
Sorted by absolute swing they delivered into
MM Patel
Mumbai Indians
42.6swingHurt (-38.9)0 wkt · 19 balls65% of swingSL Malinga
Mumbai Indians
9.7swingHurt (-4.5)0 wkt · 24 balls15% of swingHarbhajan Singh
Mumbai Indians
8.4swingHurt (-4.3)0 wkt · 13 balls13% of swingDS Kulkarni
Mumbai Indians
3.3swingHurt (-1.5)0 wkt · 12 balls5% of swingKA Pollard
Mumbai Indians
1.0swingHurt (-0.5)0 wkt · 12 balls2% of swingJEC Franklin
Mumbai Indians
0.3swingHurt (-0.3)0 wkt · 1 balls1% of swing
What if?
counterfactual · v1 (pre-event approximation)Reframes the biggest swings as "what if this hadn't happened" — the WP if the event had gone the other way is approximated by the pre-event state. Not a hard prediction.
Counterfactual · over 1.3
3-point swing on this ball.
Actual after
91%
If not
↓ 88%
Counterfactual · over 1.5
2-point swing on this ball.
Actual after
93%
If not
↓ 91%
Counterfactual · over 0.2
2-point swing on this ball.
Actual after
90%
If not
↓ 88%
Three biggest swings
WP: 88% → 91%
WP: 91% → 93%
WP: 88% → 90%
Wicket falls
1st innings (Mumbai Indians)
- TL Sumancaught · 7/1 · 1.3
- AT Rayuducaught · 17/2 · 3.6
- SR Tendulkarcaught · 65/3 · 11.3
- KA Pollardbowled · 118/4 · 17.7
- RG Sharmastumped · 131/5 · 19.4