Match DNA · 2011 · Apr 9, 2011 · Nehru Stadium, Kochi
Kochi Tuskers Kerala vs Royal Challengers Bangalore
Royal Challengers Bangalore won by 6 wickets.
POTM · AB de Villiers
1st innings
Kochi Tuskers Kerala
161/5
20 overs
2nd innings
Royal Challengers Bangalore
162/4
18.4 overs
Win probability — chasing team
Runs per over
Where the swing came from
Decomposes total absolute |Δp(chase wins)| = 4.32 across the chase (120 balls). Phases partition cleanly; overlays don't.
Event overlays — share % can intersect phases above
Who actually won this
Per-player WP-swing attribution across the chase. Every ball's ΔP is credited to BOTH the batter (who took / didn't take the run) and the bowler (who delivered the ball). Total absolute swing = 448.47.
Batters
Sorted by absolute swing they were on for
AUK Pathan
Royal Challengers Bangalore
179.6swingHelped (+32.4)13 runs · 5 balls40% of swingAB de Villiers
Royal Challengers Bangalore
85.1swingHelped (+28.0)55 runs · 41 balls19% of swingMA Agarwal
Royal Challengers Bangalore
71.3swingHelped (+31.0)42 runs · 27 balls16% of swingSS Tiwary
Royal Challengers Bangalore
47.5swingHurt (-17.7)27 runs · 25 balls11% of swingV Kohli
Royal Challengers Bangalore
44.7swingHurt (-3.8)23 runs · 18 balls10% of swingTM Dilshan
Royal Challengers Bangalore
20.3swingHurt (-19.9)2 runs · 5 balls5% of swing
Bowlers
Sorted by absolute swing they delivered into
R Vinay Kumar
Kochi Tuskers Kerala
217.8swingHurt (-12.4)1 wkt · 23 balls49% of swingRV Gomez
Kochi Tuskers Kerala
56.8swingHurt (-11.2)1 wkt · 6 balls13% of swingRP Singh
Kochi Tuskers Kerala
46.6swingHurt (-35.7)0 wkt · 22 balls10% of swingS Sreesanth
Kochi Tuskers Kerala
45.4swingHelped (+3.3)1 wkt · 21 balls10% of swingM Muralitharan
Kochi Tuskers Kerala
41.1swingHurt (-1.0)0 wkt · 24 balls9% of swingRA Jadeja
Kochi Tuskers Kerala
40.9swingHelped (+7.1)1 wkt · 25 balls9% of swing
What if?
counterfactual · v1 (pre-event approximation)Reframes the biggest swings as "what if this hadn't happened" — the WP if the event had gone the other way is approximated by the pre-event state. Not a hard prediction.
Counterfactual · over 18.5
100-point swing on this ball.
Actual after
100%
If not
↓ 0%
Counterfactual · over 18.3
40-point swing on this ball.
Actual after
25%
If not
↑ 65%
Counterfactual · over 18.4
25-point swing on this ball.
Actual after
0%
If not
↑ 25%
Three biggest swings
WP: 0% → 100%
WP: 65% → 25%
WP: 25% → 0%
Wicket falls
1st innings (Kochi Tuskers Kerala)
- VVS Laxmancaught · 80/1 · 8.6
- BB McCullumcaught · 93/2 · 11.3
- DPMD Jayawardenestumped · 124/3 · 15.1
- BJ Hodgebowled · 147/4 · 17.6
- RV Gomezcaught · 152/5 · 18.4
2nd innings (Royal Challengers Bangalore)
- TM Dilshancaught · 7/1 · 1.2
- V Kohlilbw · 48/2 · 5.3
- MA Agarwalcaught · 85/3 · 9.6
- SS Tiwarycaught · 137/4 · 17.4