Match DNA · 2009/10 · Apr 13, 2010 · MA Chidambaram Stadium, Chepauk, Chennai
Chennai Super Kings vs Kolkata Knight Riders
Chennai Super Kings won by 9 wickets.
POTM · R Ashwin
1st innings
Kolkata Knight Riders
139/8
20 overs
2nd innings
Chennai Super Kings
143/1
13.3 overs
Win probability — chasing team
Runs per over
Where the swing came from
Decomposes total absolute |Δp(chase wins)| = 0.53 across the chase (85 balls). Phases partition cleanly; overlays don't.
Event overlays — share % can intersect phases above
Who actually won this
Per-player WP-swing attribution across the chase. Every ball's ΔP is credited to BOTH the batter (who took / didn't take the run) and the bowler (who delivered the ball). Total absolute swing = 91.34.
Batters
Sorted by absolute swing they were on for
Bowlers
Sorted by absolute swing they delivered into
CH Gayle
Kolkata Knight Riders
65.7swingHurt (-34.2)1 wkt · 20 balls72% of swingAB Dinda
Kolkata Knight Riders
16.8swingHurt (-10.8)0 wkt · 13 balls18% of swingIqbal Abdulla
Kolkata Knight Riders
2.8swingHurt (-1.5)0 wkt · 15 balls3% of swingAB Agarkar
Kolkata Knight Riders
2.6swingHurt (-0.7)0 wkt · 13 balls3% of swingAD Mathews
Kolkata Knight Riders
1.6swingHurt (-1.4)0 wkt · 7 balls2% of swingDJ Hussey
Kolkata Knight Riders
1.4swingHurt (-1.1)0 wkt · 12 balls2% of swing
What if?
counterfactual · v1 (pre-event approximation)Reframes the biggest swings as "what if this hadn't happened" — the WP if the event had gone the other way is approximated by the pre-event state. Not a hard prediction.
Counterfactual · over 0.4
ML Hayden fell — bowled at 6/1.
Actual after
77%
If not
↑ 87%
Counterfactual · over 2.5
3-point swing on this ball.
Actual after
85%
If not
↓ 82%
Counterfactual · over 1.2
3-point swing on this ball.
Actual after
80%
If not
↓ 76%
Three biggest swings
WP: 87% → 77%
WP: 82% → 85%
WP: 76% → 80%
Wicket falls
1st innings (Kolkata Knight Riders)
- CH Gaylestumped · 17/1 · 2.2
- BB McCullumcaught · 17/2 · 2.6
- SC Gangulylbw · 17/3 · 3.2
- DJ Husseystumped · 19/4 · 4.1
- MK Tiwarycaught · 92/5 · 14.4
- WP Sahastumped · 96/6 · 15.5
- LR Shuklacaught · 123/7 · 18.2
- AD Mathewscaught · 133/8 · 19.4
2nd innings (Chennai Super Kings)
- ML Haydenbowled · 6/1 · 0.4