Match DNA · 2009/10 · Mar 18, 2010 · M Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bangalore
Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Rajasthan Royals
Royal Challengers Bangalore won by 10 wickets.
POTM · JH Kallis
1st innings
Rajasthan Royals
92/10
19.5 overs
2nd innings
Royal Challengers Bangalore
93/0
10.4 overs
Win probability — chasing team
Runs per over
Where the swing came from
Decomposes total absolute |Δp(chase wins)| = 0.03 across the chase (70 balls). Phases partition cleanly; overlays don't.
Event overlays — share % can intersect phases above
Who actually won this
Per-player WP-swing attribution across the chase. Every ball's ΔP is credited to BOTH the batter (who took / didn't take the run) and the bowler (who delivered the ball). Total absolute swing = 51.44.
Batters
Sorted by absolute swing they were on for
Bowlers
Sorted by absolute swing they delivered into
What if?
counterfactual · v1 (pre-event approximation)Reframes the biggest swings as "what if this hadn't happened" — the WP if the event had gone the other way is approximated by the pre-event state. Not a hard prediction.
Counterfactual · over 10.6
0-point swing on this ball.
Actual after
100%
If not
↓ 100%
Counterfactual · over 0.4
0-point swing on this ball.
Actual after
99%
If not
↓ 99%
Counterfactual · over 1.1
0-point swing on this ball.
Actual after
99%
If not
↓ 99%
Three biggest swings
WP: 100% → 100%
WP: 99% → 99%
WP: 99% → 99%
Wicket falls
1st innings (Rajasthan Royals)
- NV Ojhacaught · 27/1 · 5.1
- MJ Lumbstumped · 31/2 · 6.2
- AA Jhunjhunwalabowled · 38/3 · 7.5
- YK Pathanrun out · 75/4 · 14.1
- DR Martynbowled · 85/5 · 16.3
- S Narwalcaught · 85/6 · 16.4
- P Dograbowled · 85/7 · 16.5
- SK Warnebowled · 91/8 · 19.1
- M Morkelstumped · 92/9 · 19.4
- MM Patelrun out · 92/10 · 19.5