Match DNA · 2007/08 · May 18, 2008 · Rajiv Gandhi International Stadium, Uppal, Hyderabad
Deccan Chargers vs Mumbai Indians
Mumbai Indians won by 25 runs.
POTM · DJ Bravo
1st innings
Mumbai Indians
178/7
20 overs
2nd innings
Deccan Chargers
153/7
20 overs
Win probability — chasing team
Runs per over
Where the swing came from
Decomposes total absolute |Δp(chase wins)| = 1.83 across the chase (123 balls). Phases partition cleanly; overlays don't.
Event overlays — share % can intersect phases above
Who actually won this
Per-player WP-swing attribution across the chase. Every ball's ΔP is credited to BOTH the batter (who took / didn't take the run) and the bowler (who delivered the ball). Total absolute swing = 188.96.
Batters
Sorted by absolute swing they were on for
Y Venugopal Rao
Deccan Chargers
54.2swingHelped (+5.7)59 runs · 39 balls29% of swingDB Ravi Teja
Deccan Chargers
37.0swingHelped (+5.1)38 runs · 27 balls20% of swingAC Gilchrist
Deccan Chargers
34.1swingHurt (-16.0)14 runs · 17 balls18% of swingRG Sharma
Deccan Chargers
17.6swingHurt (-9.4)6 runs · 10 balls9% of swingShahid Afridi
Deccan Chargers
16.6swingHurt (-16.6)0 runs · 1 balls9% of swingLPC Silva
Deccan Chargers
13.0swingHurt (-2.4)19 runs · 15 balls7% of swing
Bowlers
Sorted by absolute swing they delivered into
DJ Bravo
Mumbai Indians
68.5swingHelped (+39.6)3 wkt · 25 balls36% of swingCRD Fernando
Mumbai Indians
54.0swingHelped (+16.5)3 wkt · 26 balls29% of swingA Nehra
Mumbai Indians
35.2swingHurt (-2.8)0 wkt · 24 balls19% of swingAM Nayar
Mumbai Indians
14.1swingHelped (+4.3)1 wkt · 18 balls7% of swingRR Raje
Mumbai Indians
7.7swingHurt (-4.3)0 wkt · 13 balls4% of swingST Jayasuriya
Mumbai Indians
6.3swingHurt (-1.4)0 wkt · 12 balls3% of swing
What if?
counterfactual · v1 (pre-event approximation)Reframes the biggest swings as "what if this hadn't happened" — the WP if the event had gone the other way is approximated by the pre-event state. Not a hard prediction.
Counterfactual · over 1.3
Shahid Afridi fell — caught at 7/1.
Actual after
28%
If not
↑ 45%
Counterfactual · over 17.1
Y Venugopal Rao fell — caught at 130/5.
Actual after
20%
If not
↑ 31%
Counterfactual · over 4.2
AC Gilchrist fell — caught at 20/2.
Actual after
15%
If not
↑ 25%
Three biggest swings
WP: 45% → 28%
WP: 31% → 20%
WP: 25% → 15%
Wicket falls
1st innings (Mumbai Indians)
- ST Jayasuriyacaught · 39/1 · 2.5
- SR Tendulkarcaught · 72/2 · 8.2
- DJ Thornelylbw · 72/3 · 8.4
- RV Uthappacaught · 96/4 · 12.6
- AM Nayarcaught · 150/5 · 17.4
- DJ Bravobowled · 156/6 · 17.6
- PR Shahbowled · 175/7 · 19.2
2nd innings (Deccan Chargers)
- Shahid Afridicaught · 7/1 · 1.3
- AC Gilchristcaught · 20/2 · 4.2
- RG Sharmalbw · 20/3 · 4.3
- LPC Silvacaught · 56/4 · 9.1
- Y Venugopal Raocaught · 130/5 · 17.1
- DB Ravi Tejabowled · 136/6 · 17.3
- H Dasrun out · 145/7 · 18.5