Match DNA · 2007/08 · May 14, 2008 · Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai

Mumbai Indians vs Chennai Super Kings

Mumbai Indians won by 9 wickets.

POTM · ST Jayasuriya

1st innings

Chennai Super Kings

156/6

20 overs

2nd innings

Mumbai Indians

158/1

13.5 overs

Win probability — chasing team

Runs per over

Where the swing came from

Decomposes total absolute |Δp(chase wins)| = 0.77 across the chase (93 balls). Phases partition cleanly; overlays don't.

Powerplay (overs 1-6)71%|Δp| 0.55

Middle overs (7-15)29%|Δp| 0.22

Late-overs execution (16-20)0%|Δp| 0.00

Event overlays — share % can intersect phases above

Wicket falls (overlay)5%|Δp| 0.04

Bowling-change windows (overlay)83%|Δp| 0.64

Who actually won this

Per-player WP-swing attribution across the chase. Every ball's ΔP is credited to BOTH the batter (who took / didn't take the run) and the bowler (who delivered the ball). Total absolute swing = 97.23.

Batters

Sorted by absolute swing they were on for

Bowlers

Sorted by absolute swing they delivered into

What if?

counterfactual · v1 (pre-event approximation)

Reframes the biggest swings as "what if this hadn't happened" — the WP if the event had gone the other way is approximated by the pre-event state. Not a hard prediction.

Counterfactual · over 1.5

5-point swing on this ball.

Actual after

80%

If not

↓ 74%

Counterfactual · over 3.1

5-point swing on this ball.

Actual after

81%

If not

↓ 75%

Counterfactual · over 3.4

5-point swing on this ball.

Actual after

84%

If not

↓ 80%

Three biggest swings

over 1.5↑ 5%

WP: 74% → 80%

over 3.1↑ 5%

WP: 75% → 81%

over 3.4↑ 5%

WP: 80% → 84%

Wicket falls

1st innings (Chennai Super Kings)

S Vidyutcaught · 18/1 · 2.5
SK Rainacaught · 28/2 · 5.5
SP Flemingbowled · 46/3 · 8.3
CK Kapugederacaught · 46/4 · 8.5
S Badrinathcaught and bowled · 141/5 · 18.6
JA Morkelcaught · 156/6 · 19.9

2nd innings (Mumbai Indians)

SR Tendulkarbowled · 82/1 · 7.3

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