Match DNA · 2007/08 · Apr 26, 2008 · MA Chidambaram Stadium, Chepauk, Chennai
Chennai Super Kings vs Kolkata Knight Riders
Chennai Super Kings won by 9 wickets.
POTM · JDP Oram
1st innings
Kolkata Knight Riders
147/9
20 overs
2nd innings
Chennai Super Kings
152/1
17 overs
Win probability — chasing team
Runs per over
Where the swing came from
Decomposes total absolute |Δp(chase wins)| = 0.84 across the chase (106 balls). Phases partition cleanly; overlays don't.
Event overlays — share % can intersect phases above
Who actually won this
Per-player WP-swing attribution across the chase. Every ball's ΔP is credited to BOTH the batter (who took / didn't take the run) and the bowler (who delivered the ball). Total absolute swing = 112.83.
Batters
Sorted by absolute swing they were on for
Bowlers
Sorted by absolute swing they delivered into
AB Dinda
Kolkata Knight Riders
54.9swingHurt (-35.7)0 wkt · 20 balls49% of swingAB Agarkar
Kolkata Knight Riders
18.7swingHelped (+2.5)1 wkt · 18 balls17% of swingI Sharma
Kolkata Knight Riders
15.6swingHurt (-0.4)0 wkt · 20 balls14% of swingM Kartik
Kolkata Knight Riders
8.5swingHurt (-8.4)0 wkt · 18 balls8% of swingLR Shukla
Kolkata Knight Riders
5.7swingHurt (-3.1)0 wkt · 12 balls5% of swingDJ Hussey
Kolkata Knight Riders
5.2swingHurt (-2.8)0 wkt · 6 balls5% of swing
What if?
counterfactual · v1 (pre-event approximation)Reframes the biggest swings as "what if this hadn't happened" — the WP if the event had gone the other way is approximated by the pre-event state. Not a hard prediction.
Counterfactual · over 8.2
PA Patel fell — caught at 66/1.
Actual after
85%
If not
↑ 92%
Counterfactual · over 2.6
4-point swing on this ball.
Actual after
80%
If not
↓ 75%
Counterfactual · over 2.2
3-point swing on this ball.
Actual after
77%
If not
↓ 74%
Three biggest swings
WP: 92% → 85%
WP: 75% → 80%
WP: 74% → 77%
Wicket falls
1st innings (Kolkata Knight Riders)
- BB McCullumcaught · 32/1 · 2.3
- RT Pontingcaught · 32/2 · 2.4
- WP Sahabowled · 61/3 · 5.5
- DJ Husseycaught · 64/4 · 7.2
- SC Gangulycaught · 70/5 · 9.3
- Mohammad Hafeezcaught · 98/6 · 14.4
- AB Agarkarcaught · 121/7 · 17.2
- M Kartikcaught and bowled · 127/8 · 18.2
- LR Shuklarun out · 145/9 · 19.6
2nd innings (Chennai Super Kings)
- PA Patelcaught · 66/1 · 8.2