Match DNA · 2007/08 · Apr 18, 2008 · M Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bangalore
Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight Riders
Kolkata Knight Riders won by 140 runs.
POTM · BB McCullum
1st innings
Kolkata Knight Riders
222/3
20 overs
2nd innings
Royal Challengers Bangalore
82/10
15.1 overs
Win probability — chasing team
Runs per over
Where the swing came from
Decomposes total absolute |Δp(chase wins)| = 0.12 across the chase (100 balls). Phases partition cleanly; overlays don't.
Event overlays — share % can intersect phases above
Who actually won this
Per-player WP-swing attribution across the chase. Every ball's ΔP is credited to BOTH the batter (who took / didn't take the run) and the bowler (who delivered the ball). Total absolute swing = 53.39.
Batters
Sorted by absolute swing they were on for
R Dravid
Royal Challengers Bangalore
44.9swingHurt (-44.9)2 runs · 3 balls84% of swingV Kohli
Royal Challengers Bangalore
3.0swingHurt (-1.5)5 runs · 5 balls6% of swingW Jaffer
Royal Challengers Bangalore
2.8swingHurt (-2.5)8 runs · 18 balls5% of swingJH Kallis
Royal Challengers Bangalore
1.7swingHurt (-0.6)9 runs · 7 balls3% of swingMV Boucher
Royal Challengers Bangalore
0.4swingHurt (-0.2)10 runs · 11 balls1% of swingCL White
Royal Challengers Bangalore
0.2swingHurt (-0.1)6 runs · 10 balls0% of swing
Bowlers
Sorted by absolute swing they delivered into
AB Dinda
Kolkata Knight Riders
45.3swingHelped (+45.1)2 wkt · 20 balls85% of swingI Sharma
Kolkata Knight Riders
5.6swingHelped (+3.9)1 wkt · 19 balls11% of swingAB Agarkar
Kolkata Knight Riders
2.1swingHelped (+0.7)3 wkt · 28 balls4% of swingSC Ganguly
Kolkata Knight Riders
0.4swingHelped (+0.2)3 wkt · 25 balls1% of swingLR Shukla
Kolkata Knight Riders
0.0swingHelped (+0.0)1 wkt · 9 balls0% of swing
What if?
counterfactual · v1 (pre-event approximation)Reframes the biggest swings as "what if this hadn't happened" — the WP if the event had gone the other way is approximated by the pre-event state. Not a hard prediction.
Counterfactual · over 1.1
R Dravid fell — bowled at 4/1.
Actual after
4%
If not
↑ 8%
Counterfactual · over 2.2
V Kohli fell — bowled at 9/2.
Actual after
2%
If not
↑ 4%
Counterfactual · over 4.5
JH Kallis fell — caught at 24/3.
Actual after
1%
If not
↑ 2%
Three biggest swings
WP: 8% → 4%
WP: 4% → 2%
WP: 2% → 1%
Wicket falls
1st innings (Kolkata Knight Riders)
- SC Gangulycaught · 61/1 · 5.2
- RT Pontingcaught · 112/2 · 12.1
- DJ Husseycaught · 172/3 · 17.1
2nd innings (Royal Challengers Bangalore)
- R Dravidbowled · 4/1 · 1.1
- V Kohlibowled · 9/2 · 2.2
- JH Kalliscaught · 24/3 · 4.5
- W Jaffercaught · 24/4 · 5.2
- MV Bouchercaught · 38/5 · 7.5
- B Akhilcaught · 38/6 · 8.2
- CL Whitecaught · 43/7 · 8.8
- AA Noffkerun out · 57/8 · 11.1
- Z Khanbowled · 70/9 · 13.1
- SB Joshicaught · 82/10 · 15.2