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Match DNA · 2026 · Apr 25, 2026 · Arun Jaitley Stadium, Delhi, Delhi

Delhi Capitals vs Punjab Kings

Punjab Kings won by 6 wickets.

POTM · KL Rahul

1st innings

Delhi Capitals

264/2

20 overs

2nd innings

Punjab Kings

265/4

18.5 overs

Win probability — chasing team

100%50%0%0 overs18.5 overs

Runs per over

over 1over 20280

Where the swing came from

Decomposes total absolute |Δp(chase wins)| = 4.60 across the chase (125 balls). Phases partition cleanly; overlays don't.

Powerplay (overs 1-6)14%|Δp| 0.62
Middle overs (7-15)32%|Δp| 1.49
Late-overs execution (16-20)54%|Δp| 2.49

Event overlays — share % can intersect phases above

Wicket falls (overlay)13%|Δp| 0.59
Bowling-change windows (overlay)93%|Δp| 4.29

Who actually won this

Per-player WP-swing attribution across the chase. Every ball's ΔP is credited to BOTH the batter (who took / didn't take the run) and the bowler (who delivered the ball). Total absolute swing = 508.78.

What if?

counterfactual · v1 (pre-event approximation)

Reframes the biggest swings as "what if this hadn't happened" — the WP if the event had gone the other way is approximated by the pre-event state. Not a hard prediction.

Counterfactual · over 18.6

100-point swing on this ball.

Actual after

100%

If not

0%

Counterfactual · over 17.5

46-point swing on this ball.

Actual after

9%

If not

55%

Counterfactual · over 6.5

Priyansh Arya fell — caught at 126/1.

Actual after

48%

If not

64%

Three biggest swings

over 18.6 100%

WP: 0% → 100%

over 17.5 46%

WP: 55% → 9%

over 6.5 16%

WP: 64% → 48%

Wicket falls

1st innings (Delhi Capitals)

  • P Nissankacaught · 28/1 · 2.4
  • N Ranacaught · 248/2 · 18.3

2nd innings (Punjab Kings)

  • Priyansh Aryacaught · 126/1 · 6.5
  • P Simran Singhlbw · 132/2 · 7.3
  • C Connollybowled · 145/3 · 9.2
  • N Wadheracaught · 201/4 · 14.3