Match DNA · 2026 · Apr 23, 2026 · Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai, Mumbai
Chennai Super Kings vs Mumbai Indians
Chennai Super Kings won by 103 runs.
POTM · SV Samson
1st innings
Chennai Super Kings
207/6
20 overs
2nd innings
Mumbai Indians
104/10
19 overs
Win probability — chasing team
Runs per over
Where the swing came from
Decomposes total absolute |Δp(chase wins)| = 0.41 across the chase (118 balls). Phases partition cleanly; overlays don't.
Event overlays — share % can intersect phases above
Who actually won this
Per-player WP-swing attribution across the chase. Every ball's ΔP is credited to BOTH the batter (who took / didn't take the run) and the bowler (who delivered the ball). Total absolute swing = 75.20.
Batters
Sorted by absolute swing they were on for
Q de Kock
Mumbai Indians
46.2swingHurt (-37.0)7 runs · 10 balls62% of swingDV Malewar
Mumbai Indians
8.8swingHurt (-8.8)0 runs · 1 balls12% of swingTilak Varma
Mumbai Indians
7.8swingHelped (+0.2)41 runs · 32 balls10% of swingSA Yadav
Mumbai Indians
5.9swingHelped (+2.0)37 runs · 31 balls8% of swingNaman Dhir
Mumbai Indians
2.7swingHurt (-2.7)0 runs · 3 balls4% of swingHH Pandya
Mumbai Indians
1.8swingHurt (-1.8)1 runs · 2 balls2% of swing
Bowlers
Sorted by absolute swing they delivered into
AJ Hosein
Chennai Super Kings
56.7swingHelped (+45.9)4 wkt · 24 balls75% of swingMukesh Choudhary
Chennai Super Kings
9.1swingHelped (+4.0)1 wkt · 27 balls12% of swingNoor Ahmad
Chennai Super Kings
5.8swingHelped (+1.4)2 wkt · 25 balls8% of swingJ Overton
Chennai Super Kings
2.1swingHurt (-1.7)1 wkt · 12 balls3% of swingA Kamboj
Chennai Super Kings
1.3swingHelped (+0.3)1 wkt · 19 balls2% of swingGurjapneet Singh
Chennai Super Kings
0.2swingHelped (+0.1)1 wkt · 12 balls0% of swing
What if?
counterfactual · v1 (pre-event approximation)Reframes the biggest swings as "what if this hadn't happened" — the WP if the event had gone the other way is approximated by the pre-event state. Not a hard prediction.
Counterfactual · over 0.6
DV Malewar fell — caught at 7/1.
Actual after
10%
If not
↑ 19%
Counterfactual · over 0.2
5-point swing on this ball.
Actual after
21%
If not
↓ 16%
Counterfactual · over 1.5
Q de Kock fell — bowled at 7/2.
Actual after
4%
If not
↑ 8%
Three biggest swings
WP: 19% → 10%
WP: 16% → 21%
WP: 8% → 4%
Wicket falls
1st innings (Chennai Super Kings)
- RD Gaikwadcaught · 32/1 · 2.6
- SN Khanbowled · 72/2 · 5.4
- S Dubebowled · 91/3 · 8.1
- D Breviscaught · 122/4 · 10.6
- Kartik Sharmacaught · 165/5 · 16.5
- J Overtoncaught · 181/6 · 17.7
2nd innings (Mumbai Indians)
- DV Malewarcaught · 7/1 · 0.6
- Q de Kockbowled · 7/2 · 1.5
- Naman Dhirbowled · 11/3 · 2.3
- Tilak Varmabowled · 84/4 · 11.5
- HH Pandyacaught · 85/5 · 12.1
- SE Rutherfordcaught · 85/6 · 12.2
- SA Yadavcaught · 87/7 · 13.1
- Krish Bhagatcaught · 100/8 · 16.6
- SN Thakurcaught · 100/9 · 17.1
- JJ Bumrahcaught · 104/10 · 18.6