Match DNA · 2026 · Apr 11, 2026 · MA Chidambaram Stadium, Chepauk, Chennai, Chennai
Chennai Super Kings vs Delhi Capitals
Chennai Super Kings won by 23 runs.
POTM · SV Samson
1st innings
Chennai Super Kings
212/2
20 overs
2nd innings
Delhi Capitals
189/10
20 overs
Win probability — chasing team
Runs per over
Where the swing came from
Decomposes total absolute |Δp(chase wins)| = 2.23 across the chase (128 balls). Phases partition cleanly; overlays don't.
Event overlays — share % can intersect phases above
Who actually won this
Per-player WP-swing attribution across the chase. Every ball's ΔP is credited to BOTH the batter (who took / didn't take the run) and the bowler (who delivered the ball). Total absolute swing = 259.22.
Batters
Sorted by absolute swing they were on for
P Nissanka
Delhi Capitals
90.8swingHurt (-24.7)43 runs · 24 balls35% of swingT Stubbs
Delhi Capitals
45.1swingHelped (+5.2)62 runs · 40 balls17% of swingKL Rahul
Delhi Capitals
32.7swingHurt (-4.3)18 runs · 10 balls13% of swingAshutosh Sharma
Delhi Capitals
29.0swingHelped (+1.2)19 runs · 10 balls11% of swingDA Miller
Delhi Capitals
21.3swingHurt (-1.6)26 runs · 18 balls8% of swingSameer Rizvi
Delhi Capitals
13.0swingHurt (-5.8)6 runs · 9 balls5% of swing
Bowlers
Sorted by absolute swing they delivered into
AJ Hosein
Chennai Super Kings
55.0swingHelped (+28.6)0 wkt · 14 balls21% of swingA Kamboj
Chennai Super Kings
49.2swingHelped (+6.2)3 wkt · 25 balls19% of swingKK Ahmed
Chennai Super Kings
45.1swingHurt (-7.7)1 wkt · 19 balls17% of swingJ Overton
Chennai Super Kings
42.1swingHelped (+32.2)4 wkt · 26 balls16% of swingGurjapneet Singh
Chennai Super Kings
34.9swingHurt (-1.3)1 wkt · 25 balls14% of swingNoor Ahmad
Chennai Super Kings
33.0swingHurt (-8.0)1 wkt · 20 balls13% of swing
What if?
counterfactual · v1 (pre-event approximation)Reframes the biggest swings as "what if this hadn't happened" — the WP if the event had gone the other way is approximated by the pre-event state. Not a hard prediction.
Counterfactual · over 4.6
KL Rahul fell — caught at 61/1.
Actual after
35%
If not
↑ 52%
Counterfactual · over 5.2
P Nissanka fell — caught at 61/2.
Actual after
21%
If not
↑ 34%
Counterfactual · over 14.5
Ashutosh Sharma fell — caught at 149/6.
Actual after
19%
If not
↑ 29%
Three biggest swings
WP: 52% → 35%
WP: 34% → 21%
WP: 29% → 19%
Wicket falls
1st innings (Chennai Super Kings)
- RD Gaikwadcaught · 62/1 · 6.2
- A Mhatreretired out · 175/2 · 17.3
2nd innings (Delhi Capitals)
- KL Rahulcaught · 61/1 · 4.6
- P Nissankacaught · 61/2 · 5.2
- AR Patelcaught · 66/3 · 6.1
- Sameer Rizvicaught · 76/4 · 7.7
- DA Millerbowled · 121/5 · 12.2
- Ashutosh Sharmacaught · 149/6 · 14.5
- Auqib Nabicaught · 154/7 · 15.4
- T Stubbscaught · 183/8 · 18.4
- Kuldeep Yadavcaught · 185/9 · 19.1
- L Ngidicaught · 189/10 · 19.7