Match DNA · 2026 · Apr 4, 2026 · Arun Jaitley Stadium, Delhi, Delhi
Mumbai Indians vs Delhi Capitals
Delhi Capitals won by 6 wickets.
POTM · Sameer Rizvi
1st innings
Mumbai Indians
162/6
20 overs
2nd innings
Delhi Capitals
164/4
18.1 overs
Win probability — chasing team
Runs per over
Where the swing came from
Decomposes total absolute |Δp(chase wins)| = 2.19 across the chase (112 balls). Phases partition cleanly; overlays don't.
Event overlays — share % can intersect phases above
Who actually won this
Per-player WP-swing attribution across the chase. Every ball's ΔP is credited to BOTH the batter (who took / didn't take the run) and the bowler (who delivered the ball). Total absolute swing = 233.96.
Batters
Sorted by absolute swing they were on for
Sameer Rizvi
Delhi Capitals
99.8swingHelped (+55.5)94 runs · 54 balls43% of swingP Nissanka
Delhi Capitals
61.0swingHelped (+12.3)44 runs · 30 balls26% of swingKL Rahul
Delhi Capitals
34.2swingHurt (-4.4)1 runs · 3 balls15% of swingN Rana
Delhi Capitals
19.4swingHurt (-19.4)0 runs · 3 balls8% of swingDA Miller
Delhi Capitals
18.6swingHelped (+5.9)22 runs · 19 balls8% of swingT Stubbs
Delhi Capitals
0.9swingHelped (+0.2)3 runs · 4 balls0% of swing
Bowlers
Sorted by absolute swing they delivered into
DL Chahar
Mumbai Indians
57.2swingHurt (-1.2)1 wkt · 18 balls25% of swingC Bosch
Mumbai Indians
48.9swingHurt (-34.6)1 wkt · 20 balls21% of swingMJ Santner
Mumbai Indians
41.9swingHelped (+3.3)1 wkt · 18 balls18% of swingJJ Bumrah
Mumbai Indians
37.4swingHelped (+19.7)1 wkt · 25 balls16% of swingSN Thakur
Mumbai Indians
31.2swingHurt (-26.7)0 wkt · 19 balls13% of swingM Markande
Mumbai Indians
17.4swingHurt (-10.6)0 wkt · 13 balls7% of swing
What if?
counterfactual · v1 (pre-event approximation)Reframes the biggest swings as "what if this hadn't happened" — the WP if the event had gone the other way is approximated by the pre-event state. Not a hard prediction.
Counterfactual · over 0.4
KL Rahul fell — caught at 2/1.
Actual after
46%
If not
↑ 64%
Counterfactual · over 1.4
N Rana fell — run out at 7/2.
Actual after
30%
If not
↑ 46%
Counterfactual · over 9.5
P Nissanka fell — caught at 73/3.
Actual after
48%
If not
↑ 63%
Three biggest swings
WP: 64% → 46%
WP: 46% → 30%
WP: 63% → 48%
Wicket falls
1st innings (Mumbai Indians)
- RD Rickeltoncaught · 18/1 · 2.3
- Tilak Varmacaught and bowled · 18/2 · 2.5
- RG Sharmacaught · 71/3 · 9.3
- SE Rutherfordcaught · 85/4 · 11.5
- SA Yadavlbw · 122/5 · 15.4
- Naman Dhircaught · 146/6 · 18.4
2nd innings (Delhi Capitals)
- KL Rahulcaught · 2/1 · 0.4
- N Ranarun out · 7/2 · 1.4
- P Nissankacaught · 73/3 · 9.5
- Sameer Rizvicaught · 151/4 · 16.2