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Match DNA · 2026 · Apr 1, 2026 · Bharat Ratna Shri Atal Bihari Vajpayee Ekana Cricket Stadium, Lucknow, Lucknow

Lucknow Super Giants vs Delhi Capitals

Delhi Capitals won by 6 wickets.

POTM · Sameer Rizvi

1st innings

Lucknow Super Giants

141/10

18.4 overs

2nd innings

Delhi Capitals

145/4

17.1 overs

Win probability — chasing team

100%50%0%0 overs17.1 overs

Runs per over

over 1over 20160

Where the swing came from

Decomposes total absolute |Δp(chase wins)| = 2.11 across the chase (114 balls). Phases partition cleanly; overlays don't.

Powerplay (overs 1-6)44%|Δp| 0.93
Middle overs (7-15)39%|Δp| 0.82
Late-overs execution (16-20)17%|Δp| 0.35

Event overlays — share % can intersect phases above

Wicket falls (overlay)22%|Δp| 0.46
Bowling-change windows (overlay)88%|Δp| 1.85

Who actually won this

Per-player WP-swing attribution across the chase. Every ball's ΔP is credited to BOTH the batter (who took / didn't take the run) and the bowler (who delivered the ball). Total absolute swing = 231.53.

What if?

counterfactual · v1 (pre-event approximation)

Reframes the biggest swings as "what if this hadn't happened" — the WP if the event had gone the other way is approximated by the pre-event state. Not a hard prediction.

Counterfactual · over 4.4

P Nissanka fell — caught at 25/3.

Actual after

38%

If not

55%

Counterfactual · over 3.3

N Rana fell — caught at 21/2.

Actual after

56%

If not

72%

Counterfactual · over 4.6

AR Patel fell — bowled at 26/4.

Actual after

24%

If not

38%

Three biggest swings

over 4.4 16%

WP: 55% → 38%

over 3.3 16%

WP: 72% → 56%

over 4.6 14%

WP: 38% → 24%

Wicket falls

1st innings (Lucknow Super Giants)

  • RR Pantrun out · 19/1 · 2.6
  • AK Markrambowled · 48/2 · 5.5
  • A Badonicaught · 49/3 · 6.3
  • N Pooranbowled · 65/4 · 8.5
  • MR Marshcaught · 71/5 · 9.3
  • MD Choudharycaught and bowled · 105/6 · 13.1
  • Abdul Samadcaught · 138/7 · 17.3
  • Mohammed Shamicaught · 140/8 · 17.6
  • A Nortjecaught · 141/9 · 18.3
  • Mohsin Khancaught · 141/10 · 18.4

2nd innings (Delhi Capitals)

  • KL Rahulcaught · 0/1 · 0.1
  • N Ranacaught · 21/2 · 3.3
  • P Nissankacaught · 25/3 · 4.4
  • AR Patelbowled · 26/4 · 4.6