Match DNA · 2025 · May 1, 2025 · Sawai Mansingh Stadium, Jaipur, Jaipur
Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals
Mumbai Indians won by 100 runs.
POTM · RD Rickelton
1st innings
Mumbai Indians
217/2
20 overs
2nd innings
Rajasthan Royals
117/10
16.1 overs
Win probability — chasing team
Runs per over
Where the swing came from
Decomposes total absolute |Δp(chase wins)| = 0.40 across the chase (99 balls). Phases partition cleanly; overlays don't.
Event overlays — share % can intersect phases above
Who actually won this
Per-player WP-swing attribution across the chase. Every ball's ΔP is credited to BOTH the batter (who took / didn't take the run) and the bowler (who delivered the ball). Total absolute swing = 79.21.
Batters
Sorted by absolute swing they were on for
YBK Jaiswal
Rajasthan Royals
48.9swingHurt (-40.3)13 runs · 6 balls62% of swingN Rana
Rajasthan Royals
10.0swingHurt (-2.1)17 runs · 14 balls13% of swingR Parag
Rajasthan Royals
6.0swingHelped (+0.7)16 runs · 8 balls8% of swingV Suryavanshi
Rajasthan Royals
5.5swingHurt (-5.5)0 runs · 2 balls7% of swingSB Dubey
Rajasthan Royals
3.0swingHelped (+0.0)15 runs · 9 balls4% of swingDhruv Jurel
Rajasthan Royals
1.6swingHurt (-0.5)12 runs · 11 balls2% of swing
Bowlers
Sorted by absolute swing they delivered into
DL Chahar
Mumbai Indians
49.2swingHelped (+44.0)1 wkt · 14 balls62% of swingTA Boult
Mumbai Indians
17.9swingHelped (+1.7)3 wkt · 14 balls23% of swingJJ Bumrah
Mumbai Indians
6.4swingHelped (+3.3)2 wkt · 24 balls8% of swingKV Sharma
Mumbai Indians
2.3swingHelped (+0.9)3 wkt · 24 balls3% of swingC Bosch
Mumbai Indians
2.2swingHurt (-1.1)0 wkt · 18 balls3% of swingHH Pandya
Mumbai Indians
1.2swingHelped (+1.2)1 wkt · 6 balls2% of swing
What if?
counterfactual · v1 (pre-event approximation)Reframes the biggest swings as "what if this hadn't happened" — the WP if the event had gone the other way is approximated by the pre-event state. Not a hard prediction.
Counterfactual · over 0.4
V Suryavanshi fell — caught at 1/1.
Actual after
5%
If not
↑ 10%
Counterfactual · over 1.4
YBK Jaiswal fell — bowled at 18/2.
Actual after
5%
If not
↑ 10%
Counterfactual · over 3.7
N Rana fell — caught at 41/3.
Actual after
5%
If not
↑ 9%
Three biggest swings
WP: 10% → 5%
WP: 10% → 5%
WP: 9% → 5%
Wicket falls
1st innings (Mumbai Indians)
- RD Rickeltonbowled · 116/1 · 11.6
- RG Sharmacaught · 123/2 · 12.5
2nd innings (Rajasthan Royals)
- V Suryavanshicaught · 1/1 · 0.4
- YBK Jaiswalbowled · 18/2 · 1.4
- N Ranacaught · 41/3 · 3.7
- R Paragcaught · 47/4 · 4.4
- SO Hetmyercaught · 47/5 · 4.5
- SB Dubeycaught · 64/6 · 7.1
- Dhruv Jurelcaught and bowled · 76/7 · 8.6
- M Theekshanacaught · 87/8 · 11.1
- K Kartikeyacaught · 91/9 · 11.5
- JC Archercaught · 117/10 · 16.1