Match DNA · 2025 · Apr 13, 2025 · Sawai Mansingh Stadium, Jaipur, Jaipur
Rajasthan Royals vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru
Royal Challengers Bengaluru won by 9 wickets.
POTM · PD Salt
1st innings
Rajasthan Royals
173/4
20 overs
2nd innings
Royal Challengers Bengaluru
175/1
17.3 overs
Win probability — chasing team
Runs per over
Where the swing came from
Decomposes total absolute |Δp(chase wins)| = 0.98 across the chase (110 balls). Phases partition cleanly; overlays don't.
Event overlays — share % can intersect phases above
Who actually won this
Per-player WP-swing attribution across the chase. Every ball's ΔP is credited to BOTH the batter (who took / didn't take the run) and the bowler (who delivered the ball). Total absolute swing = 104.80.
Batters
Sorted by absolute swing they were on for
Bowlers
Sorted by absolute swing they delivered into
JC Archer
Rajasthan Royals
36.2swingHurt (-16.2)0 wkt · 27 balls35% of swingSandeep Sharma
Rajasthan Royals
17.0swingHurt (-10.4)0 wkt · 16 balls16% of swingK Kartikeya
Rajasthan Royals
14.8swingHelped (+1.1)1 wkt · 19 balls14% of swingPWH de Silva
Rajasthan Royals
12.9swingHurt (-7.9)0 wkt · 18 balls12% of swingM Theekshana
Rajasthan Royals
11.9swingHurt (-9.3)0 wkt · 12 balls11% of swingTU Deshpande
Rajasthan Royals
8.7swingHurt (-5.2)0 wkt · 12 balls8% of swing
What if?
counterfactual · v1 (pre-event approximation)Reframes the biggest swings as "what if this hadn't happened" — the WP if the event had gone the other way is approximated by the pre-event state. Not a hard prediction.
Counterfactual · over 0.4
7-point swing on this ball.
Actual after
61%
If not
↓ 54%
Counterfactual · over 2.3
7-point swing on this ball.
Actual after
72%
If not
↓ 65%
Counterfactual · over 4.3
5-point swing on this ball.
Actual after
81%
If not
↓ 76%
Three biggest swings
WP: 54% → 61%
WP: 65% → 72%
WP: 76% → 81%
Wicket falls
1st innings (Rajasthan Royals)
- SV Samsonstumped · 49/1 · 6.5
- R Paragcaught · 105/2 · 13.2
- YBK Jaiswallbw · 126/3 · 15.6
- SO Hetmyercaught · 169/4 · 19.5
2nd innings (Royal Challengers Bengaluru)
- PD Saltcaught · 92/1 · 8.5