Match DNA · 2024/25 · Feb 28, 2025 · M Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengaluru, Bengaluru
Mumbai Indians vs Delhi Capitals
Delhi Capitals won by 9 wickets.
POTM · JL Jonassen
1st innings
Mumbai Indians
123/9
20 overs
2nd innings
Delhi Capitals
124/1
14.3 overs
Win probability — chasing team
Runs per over
Where the swing came from
Decomposes total absolute |Δp(chase wins)| = 0.19 across the chase (88 balls). Phases partition cleanly; overlays don't.
Event overlays — share % can intersect phases above
Who actually won this
Per-player WP-swing attribution across the chase. Every ball's ΔP is credited to BOTH the batter (who took / didn't take the run) and the bowler (who delivered the ball). Total absolute swing = 61.02.
Batters
Sorted by absolute swing they were on for
Bowlers
Sorted by absolute swing they delivered into
S Ismail
Mumbai Indians
48.3swingHurt (-43.8)0 wkt · 24 balls79% of swingNR Sciver-Brunt
Mumbai Indians
6.5swingHurt (-3.8)0 wkt · 13 balls11% of swingAC Kerr
Mumbai Indians
1.6swingHurt (-0.8)0 wkt · 12 balls3% of swingS Gupta
Mumbai Indians
1.5swingHurt (-1.3)0 wkt · 9 balls2% of swingAB Kaur
Mumbai Indians
1.5swingHelped (+0.6)1 wkt · 12 balls2% of swingHK Matthews
Mumbai Indians
1.3swingHurt (-0.6)0 wkt · 13 balls2% of swing
What if?
counterfactual · v1 (pre-event approximation)Reframes the biggest swings as "what if this hadn't happened" — the WP if the event had gone the other way is approximated by the pre-event state. Not a hard prediction.
Counterfactual · over 3.3
1-point swing on this ball.
Actual after
96%
If not
↓ 95%
Counterfactual · over 1.3
1-point swing on this ball.
Actual after
95%
If not
↓ 94%
Counterfactual · over 0.5
1-point swing on this ball.
Actual after
93%
If not
↓ 92%
Three biggest swings
WP: 95% → 96%
WP: 94% → 95%
WP: 92% → 93%
Wicket falls
1st innings (Mumbai Indians)
- YH Bhatiacaught · 35/1 · 5.3
- HK Matthewscaught · 35/2 · 6.2
- H Kaurlbw · 73/3 · 10.5
- NR Sciver-Bruntcaught and bowled · 83/4 · 13.3
- S Sajanacaught · 100/5 · 16.1
- AC Kerrcaught · 101/6 · 16.3
- G Kamalinibowled · 104/7 · 17.5
- S Guptacaught · 115/8 · 18.6
- JN Kalitarun out · 123/9 · 19.7
2nd innings (Delhi Capitals)
- Shafali Vermacaught · 85/1 · 9.5