Match DNA · 2024 · Mar 24, 2024 · Narendra Modi Stadium, Ahmedabad, Ahmedabad
Gujarat Titans vs Mumbai Indians
Gujarat Titans won by 6 runs.
POTM · B Sai Sudharsan
1st innings
Gujarat Titans
168/6
20 overs
2nd innings
Mumbai Indians
162/9
20 overs
Win probability — chasing team
Runs per over
Where the swing came from
Decomposes total absolute |Δp(chase wins)| = 3.16 across the chase (122 balls). Phases partition cleanly; overlays don't.
Event overlays — share % can intersect phases above
Who actually won this
Per-player WP-swing attribution across the chase. Every ball's ΔP is credited to BOTH the batter (who took / didn't take the run) and the bowler (who delivered the ball). Total absolute swing = 322.44.
Batters
Sorted by absolute swing they were on for
RG Sharma
Mumbai Indians
64.5swingHelped (+17.1)43 runs · 29 balls20% of swingD Brevis
Mumbai Indians
62.8swingHelped (+6.7)46 runs · 38 balls20% of swingTilak Varma
Mumbai Indians
44.3swingHurt (-2.0)25 runs · 19 balls14% of swingNaman Dhir
Mumbai Indians
43.3swingHelped (+1.2)22 runs · 12 balls13% of swingTH David
Mumbai Indians
31.6swingHurt (-15.1)12 runs · 11 balls10% of swingG Coetzee
Mumbai Indians
28.5swingHurt (-28.5)1 runs · 3 balls9% of swing
Bowlers
Sorted by absolute swing they delivered into
Azmatullah Omarzai
Gujarat Titans
78.4swingHelped (+10.7)2 wkt · 20 balls24% of swingSH Johnson
Gujarat Titans
75.9swingHelped (+20.2)2 wkt · 12 balls24% of swingMM Sharma
Gujarat Titans
55.0swingHelped (+15.4)2 wkt · 25 balls17% of swingUT Yadav
Gujarat Titans
46.5swingHurt (-1.6)2 wkt · 18 balls14% of swingR Sai Kishore
Gujarat Titans
34.1swingHelped (+5.3)1 wkt · 24 balls11% of swingRashid Khan
Gujarat Titans
32.6swingHurt (-0.0)0 wkt · 24 balls10% of swing
What if?
counterfactual · v1 (pre-event approximation)Reframes the biggest swings as "what if this hadn't happened" — the WP if the event had gone the other way is approximated by the pre-event state. Not a hard prediction.
Counterfactual · over 0.4
Ishan Kishan fell — caught at 0/1.
Actual after
36%
If not
↑ 54%
Counterfactual · over 2.7
Naman Dhir fell — lbw at 30/2.
Actual after
43%
If not
↑ 60%
Counterfactual · over 18.6
G Coetzee fell — caught and bowled at 150/7.
Actual after
11%
If not
↑ 27%
Three biggest swings
WP: 54% → 36%
WP: 60% → 43%
WP: 27% → 11%
Wicket falls
1st innings (Gujarat Titans)
- WP Sahabowled · 31/1 · 3.6
- Shubman Gillcaught · 64/2 · 7.5
- Azmatullah Omarzaicaught · 104/3 · 11.6
- DA Millercaught · 133/4 · 16.1
- B Sai Sudharsancaught · 134/5 · 16.3
- R Tewatiacaught · 161/6 · 19.1
2nd innings (Mumbai Indians)
- Ishan Kishancaught · 0/1 · 0.4
- Naman Dhirlbw · 30/2 · 2.7
- RG Sharmalbw · 107/3 · 12.1
- D Breviscaught and bowled · 129/4 · 15.5
- TH Davidcaught · 142/5 · 17.7
- Tilak Varmacaught · 148/6 · 18.2
- G Coetzeecaught and bowled · 150/7 · 18.6
- HH Pandyacaught · 160/8 · 19.3
- PP Chawlacaught · 160/9 · 19.4