Match DNA · 2023 · May 14, 2023 · Sawai Mansingh Stadium, Jaipur, Jaipur
Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Rajasthan Royals
Royal Challengers Bangalore won by 112 runs.
POTM · WD Parnell
1st innings
Royal Challengers Bangalore
171/5
20 overs
2nd innings
Rajasthan Royals
59/10
10.3 overs
Win probability — chasing team
Runs per over
Where the swing came from
Decomposes total absolute |Δp(chase wins)| = 0.83 across the chase (64 balls). Phases partition cleanly; overlays don't.
Event overlays — share % can intersect phases above
Who actually won this
Per-player WP-swing attribution across the chase. Every ball's ΔP is credited to BOTH the batter (who took / didn't take the run) and the bowler (who delivered the ball). Total absolute swing = 85.96.
Batters
Sorted by absolute swing they were on for
YBK Jaiswal
Rajasthan Royals
20.9swingHurt (-15.1)1 runs · 3 balls24% of swingSV Samson
Rajasthan Royals
17.1swingHurt (-8.7)4 runs · 5 balls20% of swingJC Buttler
Rajasthan Royals
15.4swingHurt (-15.2)1 runs · 3 balls18% of swingSO Hetmyer
Rajasthan Royals
10.2swingHelped (+1.3)35 runs · 19 balls12% of swingJE Root
Rajasthan Royals
10.1swingHurt (-4.5)10 runs · 15 balls12% of swingD Padikkal
Rajasthan Royals
7.9swingHurt (-3.7)5 runs · 4 balls9% of swing
Bowlers
Sorted by absolute swing they delivered into
WD Parnell
Royal Challengers Bangalore
33.4swingHelped (+27.9)3 wkt · 19 balls39% of swingMohammed Siraj
Royal Challengers Bangalore
33.2swingHelped (+14.5)1 wkt · 13 balls39% of swingMG Bracewell
Royal Challengers Bangalore
11.6swingHelped (+5.6)2 wkt · 18 balls14% of swingKV Sharma
Royal Challengers Bangalore
6.0swingHelped (+0.8)3 wkt · 9 balls7% of swingGJ Maxwell
Royal Challengers Bangalore
1.8swingHelped (+1.3)1 wkt · 6 balls2% of swing
What if?
counterfactual · v1 (pre-event approximation)Reframes the biggest swings as "what if this hadn't happened" — the WP if the event had gone the other way is approximated by the pre-event state. Not a hard prediction.
Counterfactual · over 0.3
YBK Jaiswal fell — caught at 1/1.
Actual after
35%
If not
↑ 53%
Counterfactual · over 1.3
JC Buttler fell — caught at 6/2.
Actual after
20%
If not
↑ 34%
Counterfactual · over 1.5
SV Samson fell — caught at 7/3.
Actual after
11%
If not
↑ 20%
Three biggest swings
WP: 53% → 35%
WP: 34% → 20%
WP: 20% → 11%
Wicket falls
1st innings (Royal Challengers Bangalore)
- V Kohlicaught · 50/1 · 6.6
- F du Plessiscaught · 119/2 · 14.6
- MK Lomrorcaught · 120/3 · 15.1
- KD Karthiklbw · 120/4 · 15.3
- GJ Maxwellbowled · 137/5 · 17.3
2nd innings (Rajasthan Royals)
- YBK Jaiswalcaught · 1/1 · 0.3
- JC Buttlercaught · 6/2 · 1.3
- SV Samsoncaught · 7/3 · 1.5
- D Padikkalcaught · 20/4 · 4.2
- JE Rootlbw · 28/5 · 5.3
- Dhruv Jurelcaught · 31/6 · 6.6
- R Ashwinrun out · 50/7 · 7.6
- SO Hetmyercaught · 59/8 · 9.5
- A Zampabowled · 59/9 · 10.1
- KM Asifcaught · 59/10 · 10.3