Match DNA · 2023 · May 5, 2023 · Sawai Mansingh Stadium, Jaipur, Jaipur
Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans
Gujarat Titans won by 9 wickets.
POTM · Rashid Khan
1st innings
Rajasthan Royals
118/10
17.5 overs
2nd innings
Gujarat Titans
119/1
13.5 overs
Win probability — chasing team
Runs per over
Where the swing came from
Decomposes total absolute |Δp(chase wins)| = 0.19 across the chase (83 balls). Phases partition cleanly; overlays don't.
Event overlays — share % can intersect phases above
Who actually won this
Per-player WP-swing attribution across the chase. Every ball's ΔP is credited to BOTH the batter (who took / didn't take the run) and the bowler (who delivered the ball). Total absolute swing = 63.03.
Batters
Sorted by absolute swing they were on for
Bowlers
Sorted by absolute swing they delivered into
TA Boult
Rajasthan Royals
51.1swingHurt (-47.0)0 wkt · 18 balls81% of swingSandeep Sharma
Rajasthan Royals
4.3swingHurt (-0.7)0 wkt · 19 balls7% of swingA Zampa
Rajasthan Royals
4.0swingHurt (-3.2)0 wkt · 18 balls6% of swingYS Chahal
Rajasthan Royals
3.5swingHelped (+1.0)1 wkt · 23 balls6% of swingR Ashwin
Rajasthan Royals
0.2swingHurt (-0.2)0 wkt · 6 balls0% of swing
What if?
counterfactual · v1 (pre-event approximation)Reframes the biggest swings as "what if this hadn't happened" — the WP if the event had gone the other way is approximated by the pre-event state. Not a hard prediction.
Counterfactual · over 9.4
Shubman Gill fell — stumped at 71/1.
Actual after
97%
If not
↑ 98%
Counterfactual · over 0.3
1-point swing on this ball.
Actual after
94%
If not
↓ 93%
Counterfactual · over 2.3
1-point swing on this ball.
Actual after
95%
If not
↓ 93%
Three biggest swings
WP: 98% → 97%
WP: 93% → 94%
WP: 93% → 95%
Wicket falls
1st innings (Rajasthan Royals)
- JC Buttlercaught · 11/1 · 1.4
- YBK Jaiswalrun out · 47/2 · 5.1
- SV Samsoncaught · 60/3 · 6.5
- R Ashwinbowled · 63/4 · 7.6
- R Paraglbw · 69/5 · 9.2
- D Padikkalbowled · 77/6 · 11.3
- Dhruv Jurellbw · 87/7 · 13.1
- SO Hetmyerlbw · 96/8 · 14.1
- TA Boultbowled · 112/9 · 16.3
- A Zamparun out · 118/10 · 17.5
2nd innings (Gujarat Titans)
- Shubman Gillstumped · 71/1 · 9.4