Match DNA · 2022 · May 1, 2022 · Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai, Mumbai
Lucknow Super Giants vs Delhi Capitals
Lucknow Super Giants won by 6 runs.
POTM · Mohsin Khan
1st innings
Lucknow Super Giants
195/3
20 overs
2nd innings
Delhi Capitals
189/7
20 overs
Win probability — chasing team
Runs per over
Where the swing came from
Decomposes total absolute |Δp(chase wins)| = 2.82 across the chase (122 balls). Phases partition cleanly; overlays don't.
Event overlays — share % can intersect phases above
Who actually won this
Per-player WP-swing attribution across the chase. Every ball's ΔP is credited to BOTH the batter (who took / didn't take the run) and the bowler (who delivered the ball). Total absolute swing = 306.38.
Batters
Sorted by absolute swing they were on for
RR Pant
Delhi Capitals
57.3swingHelped (+2.4)45 runs · 31 balls19% of swingR Powell
Delhi Capitals
49.4swingHelped (+12.9)35 runs · 21 balls16% of swingMR Marsh
Delhi Capitals
48.4swingHelped (+9.6)37 runs · 20 balls16% of swingKuldeep Yadav
Delhi Capitals
43.5swingHurt (-22.8)17 runs · 9 balls14% of swingPP Shaw
Delhi Capitals
41.9swingHurt (-35.2)5 runs · 7 balls14% of swingAR Patel
Delhi Capitals
32.0swingHelped (+12.5)43 runs · 25 balls10% of swing
Bowlers
Sorted by absolute swing they delivered into
Mohsin Khan
Lucknow Super Giants
85.5swingHelped (+69.3)4 wkt · 25 balls28% of swingPVD Chameera
Lucknow Super Giants
53.4swingHurt (-6.1)1 wkt · 24 balls17% of swingRavi Bishnoi
Lucknow Super Giants
47.0swingHelped (+0.8)1 wkt · 24 balls15% of swingJO Holder
Lucknow Super Giants
39.6swingHurt (-21.9)0 wkt · 25 balls13% of swingK Gowtham
Lucknow Super Giants
38.0swingHurt (-3.6)1 wkt · 12 balls12% of swingMP Stoinis
Lucknow Super Giants
34.1swingHelped (+19.5)0 wkt · 7 balls11% of swing
What if?
counterfactual · v1 (pre-event approximation)Reframes the biggest swings as "what if this hadn't happened" — the WP if the event had gone the other way is approximated by the pre-event state. Not a hard prediction.
Counterfactual · over 7.1
MR Marsh fell — caught at 73/3.
Actual after
31%
If not
↑ 46%
Counterfactual · over 8.5
Lalit Yadav fell — bowled at 86/4.
Actual after
25%
If not
↑ 39%
Counterfactual · over 12.7
RR Pant fell — bowled at 120/5.
Actual after
30%
If not
↑ 43%
Three biggest swings
WP: 46% → 31%
WP: 39% → 25%
WP: 43% → 30%
Wicket falls
1st innings (Lucknow Super Giants)
- Q de Kockcaught · 42/1 · 4.2
- DJ Hoodacaught and bowled · 137/2 · 14.3
- KL Rahulcaught · 176/3 · 18.5
2nd innings (Delhi Capitals)
- PP Shawcaught · 5/1 · 1.2
- DA Warnercaught · 13/2 · 2.6
- MR Marshcaught · 73/3 · 7.1
- Lalit Yadavbowled · 86/4 · 8.5
- RR Pantbowled · 120/5 · 12.7
- R Powellcaught · 146/6 · 16.1
- SN Thakurcaught · 148/7 · 16.4