Match DNA · 2022 · Mar 27, 2022 · Brabourne Stadium, Mumbai, Mumbai
Mumbai Indians vs Delhi Capitals
Delhi Capitals won by 4 wickets.
POTM · Kuldeep Yadav
1st innings
Mumbai Indians
177/5
20 overs
2nd innings
Delhi Capitals
179/6
18.2 overs
Win probability — chasing team
Runs per over
Where the swing came from
Decomposes total absolute |Δp(chase wins)| = 2.72 across the chase (116 balls). Phases partition cleanly; overlays don't.
Event overlays — share % can intersect phases above
Who actually won this
Per-player WP-swing attribution across the chase. Every ball's ΔP is credited to BOTH the batter (who took / didn't take the run) and the bowler (who delivered the ball). Total absolute swing = 276.60.
Batters
Sorted by absolute swing they were on for
Lalit Yadav
Delhi Capitals
58.3swingHelped (+29.4)56 runs · 42 balls21% of swingAR Patel
Delhi Capitals
57.3swingHelped (+49.9)38 runs · 17 balls21% of swingPP Shaw
Delhi Capitals
54.5swingHelped (+5.3)38 runs · 24 balls20% of swingTL Seifert
Delhi Capitals
47.4swingHurt (-3.6)23 runs · 16 balls17% of swingSN Thakur
Delhi Capitals
22.7swingHelped (+4.7)22 runs · 11 balls8% of swingMandeep Singh
Delhi Capitals
16.7swingHurt (-16.7)0 runs · 2 balls6% of swing
Bowlers
Sorted by absolute swing they delivered into
DR Sams
Mumbai Indians
73.4swingHurt (-55.0)0 wkt · 26 balls27% of swingBasil Thampi
Mumbai Indians
68.3swingHelped (+7.7)3 wkt · 27 balls25% of swingJJ Bumrah
Mumbai Indians
53.4swingHurt (-43.2)0 wkt · 20 balls19% of swingM Ashwin
Mumbai Indians
50.5swingHelped (+39.2)2 wkt · 24 balls18% of swingTS Mills
Mumbai Indians
31.0swingHelped (+1.4)1 wkt · 20 balls11% of swing
What if?
counterfactual · v1 (pre-event approximation)Reframes the biggest swings as "what if this hadn't happened" — the WP if the event had gone the other way is approximated by the pre-event state. Not a hard prediction.
Counterfactual · over 3.3
TL Seifert fell — bowled at 30/1.
Actual after
44%
If not
↑ 61%
Counterfactual · over 18.2
15-point swing on this ball.
Actual after
100%
If not
↓ 85%
Counterfactual · over 3.5
Mandeep Singh fell — caught at 30/2.
Actual after
27%
If not
↑ 42%
Three biggest swings
WP: 61% → 44%
WP: 85% → 100%
WP: 42% → 27%
Wicket falls
1st innings (Mumbai Indians)
- RG Sharmacaught · 67/1 · 8.2
- Anmolpreet Singhcaught · 83/2 · 10.4
- Tilak Varmacaught · 117/3 · 14.2
- KA Pollardcaught · 122/4 · 15.5
- TH Davidcaught · 159/5 · 18.6
2nd innings (Delhi Capitals)
- TL Seifertbowled · 30/1 · 3.3
- Mandeep Singhcaught · 30/2 · 3.5
- RR Pantcaught · 32/3 · 4.2
- PP Shawcaught · 72/4 · 9.3
- R Powellcaught · 72/5 · 9.5
- SN Thakurcaught · 104/6 · 13.2