Match DNA · 2021 · Apr 23, 2021 · MA Chidambaram Stadium, Chepauk, Chennai, Chennai
Mumbai Indians vs Punjab Kings
Punjab Kings won by 9 wickets.
POTM · KL Rahul
1st innings
Mumbai Indians
131/6
20 overs
2nd innings
Punjab Kings
132/1
17.4 overs
Win probability — chasing team
Runs per over
Where the swing came from
Decomposes total absolute |Δp(chase wins)| = 0.64 across the chase (109 balls). Phases partition cleanly; overlays don't.
Event overlays — share % can intersect phases above
Who actually won this
Per-player WP-swing attribution across the chase. Every ball's ΔP is credited to BOTH the batter (who took / didn't take the run) and the bowler (who delivered the ball). Total absolute swing = 102.46.
Batters
Sorted by absolute swing they were on for
Bowlers
Sorted by absolute swing they delivered into
TA Boult
Mumbai Indians
50.0swingHurt (-44.3)0 wkt · 17 balls49% of swingJ Yadav
Mumbai Indians
16.1swingHelped (+1.2)0 wkt · 24 balls16% of swingKH Pandya
Mumbai Indians
12.5swingHurt (-6.2)0 wkt · 21 balls12% of swingRD Chahar
Mumbai Indians
11.4swingHelped (+4.1)1 wkt · 24 balls11% of swingJJ Bumrah
Mumbai Indians
8.8swingHurt (-1.9)0 wkt · 18 balls9% of swingKA Pollard
Mumbai Indians
3.7swingHurt (-2.9)0 wkt · 6 balls4% of swing
What if?
counterfactual · v1 (pre-event approximation)Reframes the biggest swings as "what if this hadn't happened" — the WP if the event had gone the other way is approximated by the pre-event state. Not a hard prediction.
Counterfactual · over 7.2
MA Agarwal fell — caught at 53/1.
Actual after
91%
If not
↑ 95%
Counterfactual · over 11.4
3-point swing on this ball.
Actual after
85%
If not
↓ 82%
Counterfactual · over 13.4
3-point swing on this ball.
Actual after
93%
If not
↓ 90%
Three biggest swings
WP: 95% → 91%
WP: 82% → 85%
WP: 90% → 93%
Wicket falls
1st innings (Mumbai Indians)
- Q de Kockcaught · 7/1 · 1.6
- Ishan Kishancaught · 26/2 · 6.6
- SA Yadavcaught · 105/3 · 16.1
- RG Sharmacaught · 112/4 · 17.3
- HH Pandyacaught · 122/5 · 18.5
- KH Pandyacaught · 130/6 · 19.5
2nd innings (Punjab Kings)
- MA Agarwalcaught · 53/1 · 7.2