Match DNA · 2021 · Apr 22, 2021 · Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai, Mumbai
Rajasthan Royals vs Royal Challengers Bangalore
Royal Challengers Bangalore won by 10 wickets.
POTM · D Padikkal
1st innings
Rajasthan Royals
177/9
20 overs
2nd innings
Royal Challengers Bangalore
181/0
16.3 overs
Win probability — chasing team
Runs per over
Where the swing came from
Decomposes total absolute |Δp(chase wins)| = 0.95 across the chase (100 balls). Phases partition cleanly; overlays don't.
Event overlays — share % can intersect phases above
Who actually won this
Per-player WP-swing attribution across the chase. Every ball's ΔP is credited to BOTH the batter (who took / didn't take the run) and the bowler (who delivered the ball). Total absolute swing = 99.79.
Batters
Sorted by absolute swing they were on for
Bowlers
Sorted by absolute swing they delivered into
S Gopal
Rajasthan Royals
31.0swingHurt (-7.9)0 wkt · 18 balls31% of swingC Sakariya
Rajasthan Royals
18.6swingHurt (-5.6)0 wkt · 25 balls19% of swingMustafizur Rahman
Rajasthan Royals
17.6swingHurt (-7.6)0 wkt · 22 balls18% of swingCH Morris
Rajasthan Royals
16.0swingHurt (-15.2)0 wkt · 18 balls16% of swingR Tewatia
Rajasthan Royals
10.1swingHurt (-7.1)0 wkt · 12 balls10% of swingR Parag
Rajasthan Royals
6.5swingHurt (-6.5)0 wkt · 6 balls7% of swing
What if?
counterfactual · v1 (pre-event approximation)Reframes the biggest swings as "what if this hadn't happened" — the WP if the event had gone the other way is approximated by the pre-event state. Not a hard prediction.
Counterfactual · over 0.4
8-point swing on this ball.
Actual after
50%
If not
↓ 43%
Counterfactual · over 4.6
6-point swing on this ball.
Actual after
76%
If not
↓ 70%
Counterfactual · over 5.7
6-point swing on this ball.
Actual after
80%
If not
↓ 74%
Three biggest swings
WP: 43% → 50%
WP: 70% → 76%
WP: 74% → 80%
Wicket falls
1st innings (Rajasthan Royals)
- JC Buttlerbowled · 14/1 · 2.3
- M Vohracaught · 16/2 · 3.5
- DA Millerlbw · 18/3 · 4.3
- SV Samsoncaught · 43/4 · 7.2
- R Paragcaught · 109/5 · 13.3
- S Dubecaught · 133/6 · 15.3
- R Tewatiacaught · 170/7 · 18.7
- CH Morriscaught · 170/8 · 19.1
- C Sakariyacaught · 170/9 · 19.2