Match DNA · 2020/21 · Oct 18, 2020 · Dubai International Cricket Stadium
Mumbai Indians vs Kings XI Punjab
Kings XI Punjab won in a super over after a tie.super over
POTM · KL Rahul
1st innings
Mumbai Indians
176/6
20 overs
2nd innings
Kings XI Punjab
176/6
20 overs
Win probability — chasing team
Runs per over
Where the swing came from
Decomposes total absolute |Δp(chase wins)| = 3.47 across the chase (123 balls). Phases partition cleanly; overlays don't.
Event overlays — share % can intersect phases above
Who actually won this
Per-player WP-swing attribution across the chase. Every ball's ΔP is credited to BOTH the batter (who took / didn't take the run) and the bowler (who delivered the ball). Total absolute swing = 348.89.
Batters
Sorted by absolute swing they were on for
KL Rahul
Kings XI Punjab
102.7swingHelped (+32.9)79 runs · 53 balls29% of swingDJ Hooda
Kings XI Punjab
57.2swingHurt (-21.8)23 runs · 16 balls16% of swingCH Gayle
Kings XI Punjab
53.3swingHurt (-6.3)26 runs · 23 balls15% of swingCJ Jordan
Kings XI Punjab
48.6swingHurt (-35.5)13 runs · 8 balls14% of swingN Pooran
Kings XI Punjab
43.6swingHelped (+7.9)24 runs · 12 balls13% of swingMA Agarwal
Kings XI Punjab
28.6swingHurt (-12.3)11 runs · 10 balls8% of swing
Bowlers
Sorted by absolute swing they delivered into
TA Boult
Mumbai Indians
101.6swingHelped (+21.9)1 wkt · 25 balls29% of swingJJ Bumrah
Mumbai Indians
77.0swingHelped (+39.2)3 wkt · 25 balls22% of swingRD Chahar
Mumbai Indians
66.7swingHelped (+7.7)2 wkt · 24 balls19% of swingNM Coulter-Nile
Mumbai Indians
60.1swingHelped (+1.2)0 wkt · 24 balls17% of swingKA Pollard
Mumbai Indians
26.7swingHurt (-18.5)0 wkt · 14 balls8% of swingKH Pandya
Mumbai Indians
16.8swingHurt (-1.5)0 wkt · 12 balls5% of swing
What if?
counterfactual · v1 (pre-event approximation)Reframes the biggest swings as "what if this hadn't happened" — the WP if the event had gone the other way is approximated by the pre-event state. Not a hard prediction.
Counterfactual · over 19.1
32-point swing on this ball.
Actual after
21%
If not
↑ 53%
Counterfactual · over 19.2
21-point swing on this ball.
Actual after
0%
If not
↑ 21%
Counterfactual · over 3.3
MA Agarwal fell — bowled at 33/1.
Actual after
51%
If not
↑ 68%
Three biggest swings
WP: 53% → 21%
WP: 21% → 0%
WP: 68% → 51%
Wicket falls
1st innings (Mumbai Indians)
- RG Sharmabowled · 23/1 · 2.6
- SA Yadavcaught · 24/2 · 3.3
- Ishan Kishancaught · 38/3 · 5.1
- KH Pandyacaught · 96/4 · 13.5
- HH Pandyacaught · 116/5 · 15.3
- Q de Kockcaught · 119/6 · 16.3
2nd innings (Kings XI Punjab)
- MA Agarwalbowled · 33/1 · 3.3
- CH Gaylecaught · 75/2 · 9.1
- N Poorancaught · 108/3 · 12.5
- GJ Maxwellcaught · 115/4 · 13.3
- KL Rahulbowled · 153/5 · 17.3
- CJ Jordanrun out · 176/6 · 19.6