Match DNA · 2019 · Apr 24, 2019 · M.Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengaluru
Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kings XI Punjab
Royal Challengers Bangalore won by 17 runs.
POTM · AB de Villiers
1st innings
Royal Challengers Bangalore
202/4
20 overs
2nd innings
Kings XI Punjab
185/7
20 overs
Win probability — chasing team
Runs per over
Where the swing came from
Decomposes total absolute |Δp(chase wins)| = 3.26 across the chase (123 balls). Phases partition cleanly; overlays don't.
Event overlays — share % can intersect phases above
Who actually won this
Per-player WP-swing attribution across the chase. Every ball's ΔP is credited to BOTH the batter (who took / didn't take the run) and the bowler (who delivered the ball). Total absolute swing = 355.44.
Batters
Sorted by absolute swing they were on for
KL Rahul
Kings XI Punjab
99.8swingHurt (-18.3)44 runs · 29 balls28% of swingN Pooran
Kings XI Punjab
87.1swingHelped (+7.2)46 runs · 28 balls25% of swingMA Agarwal
Kings XI Punjab
54.2swingHelped (+10.2)35 runs · 21 balls15% of swingDA Miller
Kings XI Punjab
44.1swingHurt (-22.8)25 runs · 26 balls12% of swingCH Gayle
Kings XI Punjab
42.0swingHelped (+2.1)24 runs · 11 balls12% of swingMandeep Singh
Kings XI Punjab
27.1swingHurt (-27.1)4 runs · 4 balls8% of swing
Bowlers
Sorted by absolute swing they delivered into
Navdeep Saini
Royal Challengers Bangalore
104.1swingHelped (+45.2)2 wkt · 24 balls29% of swingTG Southee
Royal Challengers Bangalore
66.8swingHelped (+11.9)0 wkt · 19 balls19% of swingUT Yadav
Royal Challengers Bangalore
57.0swingHelped (+16.3)3 wkt · 27 balls16% of swingMM Ali
Royal Challengers Bangalore
40.6swingHelped (+6.5)1 wkt · 18 balls11% of swingWashington Sundar
Royal Challengers Bangalore
34.4swingHurt (-16.1)0 wkt · 12 balls10% of swingYS Chahal
Royal Challengers Bangalore
28.6swingHurt (-23.1)0 wkt · 12 balls8% of swing
What if?
counterfactual · v1 (pre-event approximation)Reframes the biggest swings as "what if this hadn't happened" — the WP if the event had gone the other way is approximated by the pre-event state. Not a hard prediction.
Counterfactual · over 18.1
DA Miller fell — caught at 173/4.
Actual after
48%
If not
↑ 65%
Counterfactual · over 3.2
CH Gayle fell — caught at 42/1.
Actual after
33%
If not
↑ 50%
Counterfactual · over 10.1
KL Rahul fell — caught at 105/3.
Actual after
43%
If not
↑ 58%
Three biggest swings
WP: 65% → 48%
WP: 50% → 33%
WP: 58% → 43%
Wicket falls
1st innings (Royal Challengers Bangalore)
- V Kohlicaught · 35/1 · 3.1
- PA Patelcaught and bowled · 71/2 · 6.2
- MM Alibowled · 76/3 · 7.3
- AD Nathcaught · 81/4 · 8.6
2nd innings (Kings XI Punjab)
- CH Gaylecaught · 42/1 · 3.2
- MA Agarwalcaught · 101/2 · 9.1
- KL Rahulcaught · 105/3 · 10.1
- DA Millercaught · 173/4 · 18.1
- N Poorancaught · 176/5 · 18.6
- R Ashwincaught · 182/6 · 19.2
- GC Viljoencaught · 182/7 · 19.3