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Match DNA · 2019 · Mar 24, 2019 · Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai

Delhi Capitals vs Mumbai Indians

Delhi Capitals won by 37 runs.

POTM · RR Pant

1st innings

Delhi Capitals

213/6

20 overs

2nd innings

Mumbai Indians

176/9

19.2 overs

Win probability — chasing team

100%50%0%0 overs19.2 overs

Runs per over

over 1over 20210

Where the swing came from

Decomposes total absolute |Δp(chase wins)| = 1.28 across the chase (121 balls). Phases partition cleanly; overlays don't.

Powerplay (overs 1-6)36%|Δp| 0.46
Middle overs (7-15)39%|Δp| 0.50
Late-overs execution (16-20)25%|Δp| 0.32

Event overlays — share % can intersect phases above

Wicket falls (overlay)35%|Δp| 0.45
Bowling-change windows (overlay)93%|Δp| 1.19

Who actually won this

Per-player WP-swing attribution across the chase. Every ball's ΔP is credited to BOTH the batter (who took / didn't take the run) and the bowler (who delivered the ball). Total absolute swing = 165.28.

What if?

counterfactual · v1 (pre-event approximation)

Reframes the biggest swings as "what if this hadn't happened" — the WP if the event had gone the other way is approximated by the pre-event state. Not a hard prediction.

Counterfactual · over 3.3

RG Sharma fell — caught at 33/1.

Actual after

15%

If not

26%

Counterfactual · over 10.5

KA Pollard fell — caught at 95/4.

Actual after

10%

If not

17%

Counterfactual · over 16.3

BCJ Cutting fell — caught at 153/7.

Actual after

10%

If not

16%

Three biggest swings

over 3.3 11%

WP: 26% → 15%

over 10.5 7%

WP: 17% → 10%

over 16.3 6%

WP: 16% → 10%

Wicket falls

1st innings (Delhi Capitals)

  • PP Shawcaught · 10/1 · 1.3
  • SS Iyercaught · 29/2 · 3.4
  • CA Ingramcaught · 112/3 · 12.6
  • S Dhawancaught · 131/4 · 15.1
  • KMA Paulcaught · 157/5 · 16.5
  • AR Patelcaught · 165/6 · 17.2

2nd innings (Mumbai Indians)

  • RG Sharmacaught · 33/1 · 3.3
  • SA Yadavrun out · 37/2 · 5.1
  • Q de Kockcaught · 45/3 · 5.5
  • KA Pollardcaught · 95/4 · 10.5
  • HH Pandyacaught and bowled · 95/5 · 11.2
  • KH Pandyacaught · 134/6 · 14.7
  • BCJ Cuttingcaught · 153/7 · 16.3
  • Yuvraj Singhcaught · 170/8 · 18.3
  • MJ McClenaghanstumped · 176/9 · 19.2