Match DNA · 2019 · Mar 24, 2019 · Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai
Delhi Capitals vs Mumbai Indians
Delhi Capitals won by 37 runs.
POTM · RR Pant
1st innings
Delhi Capitals
213/6
20 overs
2nd innings
Mumbai Indians
176/9
19.2 overs
Win probability — chasing team
Runs per over
Where the swing came from
Decomposes total absolute |Δp(chase wins)| = 1.28 across the chase (121 balls). Phases partition cleanly; overlays don't.
Event overlays — share % can intersect phases above
Who actually won this
Per-player WP-swing attribution across the chase. Every ball's ΔP is credited to BOTH the batter (who took / didn't take the run) and the bowler (who delivered the ball). Total absolute swing = 165.28.
Batters
Sorted by absolute swing they were on for
RG Sharma
Mumbai Indians
57.3swingHurt (-45.0)14 runs · 13 balls35% of swingYuvraj Singh
Mumbai Indians
33.5swingHelped (+7.5)59 runs · 40 balls20% of swingKH Pandya
Mumbai Indians
19.5swingHelped (+4.2)33 runs · 16 balls12% of swingQ de Kock
Mumbai Indians
18.3swingHelped (+6.9)29 runs · 16 balls11% of swingKA Pollard
Mumbai Indians
11.6swingHurt (-3.1)21 runs · 13 balls7% of swingSA Yadav
Mumbai Indians
7.5swingHurt (-7.4)2 runs · 6 balls5% of swing
Bowlers
Sorted by absolute swing they delivered into
TA Boult
Delhi Capitals
67.0swingHelped (+33.0)1 wkt · 25 balls41% of swingI Sharma
Delhi Capitals
39.9swingHelped (+12.0)3 wkt · 24 balls24% of swingAR Patel
Delhi Capitals
21.7swingHurt (-11.8)1 wkt · 18 balls13% of swingK Rabada
Delhi Capitals
18.9swingHelped (+14.0)2 wkt · 27 balls12% of swingKMA Paul
Delhi Capitals
14.9swingHelped (+4.7)1 wkt · 20 balls9% of swingR Tewatia
Delhi Capitals
3.0swingHurt (-2.0)1 wkt · 8 balls2% of swing
What if?
counterfactual · v1 (pre-event approximation)Reframes the biggest swings as "what if this hadn't happened" — the WP if the event had gone the other way is approximated by the pre-event state. Not a hard prediction.
Counterfactual · over 3.3
RG Sharma fell — caught at 33/1.
Actual after
15%
If not
↑ 26%
Counterfactual · over 10.5
KA Pollard fell — caught at 95/4.
Actual after
10%
If not
↑ 17%
Counterfactual · over 16.3
BCJ Cutting fell — caught at 153/7.
Actual after
10%
If not
↑ 16%
Three biggest swings
WP: 26% → 15%
WP: 17% → 10%
WP: 16% → 10%
Wicket falls
1st innings (Delhi Capitals)
- PP Shawcaught · 10/1 · 1.3
- SS Iyercaught · 29/2 · 3.4
- CA Ingramcaught · 112/3 · 12.6
- S Dhawancaught · 131/4 · 15.1
- KMA Paulcaught · 157/5 · 16.5
- AR Patelcaught · 165/6 · 17.2
2nd innings (Mumbai Indians)
- RG Sharmacaught · 33/1 · 3.3
- SA Yadavrun out · 37/2 · 5.1
- Q de Kockcaught · 45/3 · 5.5
- KA Pollardcaught · 95/4 · 10.5
- HH Pandyacaught and bowled · 95/5 · 11.2
- KH Pandyacaught · 134/6 · 14.7
- BCJ Cuttingcaught · 153/7 · 16.3
- Yuvraj Singhcaught · 170/8 · 18.3
- MJ McClenaghanstumped · 176/9 · 19.2