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Match DNA · 2018 · May 20, 2018 · Arun Jaitley Stadium, Delhi

Delhi Daredevils vs Mumbai Indians

Delhi Daredevils won by 11 runs.

POTM · A Mishra

1st innings

Delhi Daredevils

174/4

20 overs

2nd innings

Mumbai Indians

163/10

19.3 overs

Win probability — chasing team

100%50%0%0 overs19.3 overs

Runs per over

over 1over 20170

Where the swing came from

Decomposes total absolute |Δp(chase wins)| = 3.11 across the chase (121 balls). Phases partition cleanly; overlays don't.

Powerplay (overs 1-6)27%|Δp| 0.83
Middle overs (7-15)50%|Δp| 1.56
Late-overs execution (16-20)23%|Δp| 0.73

Event overlays — share % can intersect phases above

Wicket falls (overlay)33%|Δp| 1.01
Bowling-change windows (overlay)88%|Δp| 2.75

Who actually won this

Per-player WP-swing attribution across the chase. Every ball's ΔP is credited to BOTH the batter (who took / didn't take the run) and the bowler (who delivered the ball). Total absolute swing = 316.26.

What if?

counterfactual · v1 (pre-event approximation)

Reframes the biggest swings as "what if this hadn't happened" — the WP if the event had gone the other way is approximated by the pre-event state. Not a hard prediction.

Counterfactual · over 0.4

SA Yadav fell — caught at 12/1.

Actual after

46%

If not

64%

Counterfactual · over 6.1

Ishan Kishan fell — caught at 57/2.

Actual after

52%

If not

67%

Counterfactual · over 8.6

E Lewis fell — stumped at 74/3.

Actual after

41%

If not

56%

Three biggest swings

over 0.4 18%

WP: 64% → 46%

over 6.1 16%

WP: 67% → 52%

over 8.6 15%

WP: 56% → 41%

Wicket falls

1st innings (Delhi Daredevils)

  • PP Shawrun out · 30/1 · 3.1
  • GJ Maxwellbowled · 38/2 · 4.4
  • SS Iyercaught · 75/3 · 8.6
  • RR Pantcaught · 139/4 · 16.5

2nd innings (Mumbai Indians)

  • SA Yadavcaught · 12/1 · 0.4
  • Ishan Kishancaught · 57/2 · 6.1
  • E Lewisstumped · 74/3 · 8.6
  • KA Pollardcaught · 74/4 · 9.1
  • KH Pandyacaught · 78/5 · 9.4
  • RG Sharmacaught · 121/6 · 13.6
  • HH Pandyacaught · 122/7 · 14.5
  • M Markandebowled · 157/8 · 18.6
  • BCJ Cuttingcaught · 163/9 · 19.2
  • JJ Bumrahcaught · 163/10 · 19.3