Match DNA · 2018 · Apr 30, 2018 · Maharashtra Cricket Association Stadium, Pune
Chennai Super Kings vs Delhi Daredevils
Chennai Super Kings won by 13 runs.
POTM · SR Watson
1st innings
Chennai Super Kings
211/4
20 overs
2nd innings
Delhi Daredevils
198/5
20 overs
Win probability — chasing team
Runs per over
Where the swing came from
Decomposes total absolute |Δp(chase wins)| = 1.53 across the chase (125 balls). Phases partition cleanly; overlays don't.
Event overlays — share % can intersect phases above
Who actually won this
Per-player WP-swing attribution across the chase. Every ball's ΔP is credited to BOTH the batter (who took / didn't take the run) and the bowler (who delivered the ball). Total absolute swing = 188.69.
Batters
Sorted by absolute swing they were on for
RR Pant
Delhi Daredevils
63.0swingHelped (+15.7)81 runs · 47 balls33% of swingPP Shaw
Delhi Daredevils
47.4swingHurt (-39.1)10 runs · 6 balls25% of swingC Munro
Delhi Daredevils
27.1swingHurt (-0.0)26 runs · 16 balls14% of swingV Shankar
Delhi Daredevils
25.6swingHurt (-8.9)58 runs · 33 balls14% of swingSS Iyer
Delhi Daredevils
11.7swingHurt (-7.4)13 runs · 14 balls6% of swingGJ Maxwell
Delhi Daredevils
7.0swingHurt (-3.3)6 runs · 5 balls4% of swing
Bowlers
Sorted by absolute swing they delivered into
L Ngidi
Chennai Super Kings
68.5swingHelped (+57.6)1 wkt · 26 balls36% of swingKM Asif
Chennai Super Kings
44.3swingHurt (-8.4)2 wkt · 19 balls24% of swingDJ Bravo
Chennai Super Kings
34.2swingHelped (+5.7)0 wkt · 19 balls18% of swingRA Jadeja
Chennai Super Kings
19.8swingHelped (+7.4)2 wkt · 25 balls11% of swingSR Watson
Chennai Super Kings
12.9swingHurt (-10.2)0 wkt · 12 balls7% of swingHarbhajan Singh
Chennai Super Kings
9.1swingHurt (-2.1)0 wkt · 25 balls5% of swing
What if?
counterfactual · v1 (pre-event approximation)Reframes the biggest swings as "what if this hadn't happened" — the WP if the event had gone the other way is approximated by the pre-event state. Not a hard prediction.
Counterfactual · over 17.4
RR Pant fell — caught at 162/5.
Actual after
19%
If not
↑ 30%
Counterfactual · over 4.6
C Munro fell — caught at 46/2.
Actual after
12%
If not
↑ 20%
Counterfactual · over 6.6
SS Iyer fell — run out at 64/3.
Actual after
10%
If not
↑ 18%
Three biggest swings
WP: 30% → 19%
WP: 20% → 12%
WP: 18% → 10%
Wicket falls
1st innings (Chennai Super Kings)
- F du Plessiscaught · 102/1 · 10.6
- SK Rainabowled · 103/2 · 11.1
- SR Watsoncaught · 130/3 · 13.5
- AT Rayudurun out · 209/4 · 19.5
2nd innings (Delhi Daredevils)
- PP Shawcaught · 10/1 · 1.5
- C Munrocaught · 46/2 · 4.6
- SS Iyerrun out · 64/3 · 6.6
- GJ Maxwellbowled · 74/4 · 8.5
- RR Pantcaught · 162/5 · 17.4