Match DNA · 2018 · Apr 11, 2018 · Sawai Mansingh Stadium, Jaipur
Rajasthan Royals vs Delhi Daredevils
Rajasthan Royals won by 10 runs.
POTM · SV Samson
1st innings
Rajasthan Royals
153/5
17.5 overs
2nd innings
Delhi Daredevils
60/4
6 overs
Win probability — chasing team
Runs per over
Where the swing came from
Decomposes total absolute |Δp(chase wins)| = 1.09 across the chase (36 balls). Phases partition cleanly; overlays don't.
Event overlays — share % can intersect phases above
Who actually won this
Per-player WP-swing attribution across the chase. Every ball's ΔP is credited to BOTH the batter (who took / didn't take the run) and the bowler (who delivered the ball). Total absolute swing = 116.39.
Batters
Sorted by absolute swing they were on for
GJ Maxwell
Delhi Daredevils
42.3swingHelped (+3.9)17 runs · 12 balls36% of swingRR Pant
Delhi Daredevils
35.1swingHurt (-2.4)22 runs · 15 balls30% of swingCH Morris
Delhi Daredevils
20.7swingHelped (+18.3)18 runs · 7 balls18% of swingV Shankar
Delhi Daredevils
18.4swingHurt (-14.2)3 runs · 3 balls16% of swing
Bowlers
Sorted by absolute swing they delivered into
What if?
counterfactual · v1 (pre-event approximation)Reframes the biggest swings as "what if this hadn't happened" — the WP if the event had gone the other way is approximated by the pre-event state. Not a hard prediction.
Counterfactual · over 5.4
V Shankar fell — caught at 50/4.
Actual after
43%
If not
↑ 59%
Counterfactual · over 4.6
RR Pant fell — caught at 46/3.
Actual after
57%
If not
↑ 72%
Counterfactual · over 3.4
GJ Maxwell fell — caught at 34/2.
Actual after
64%
If not
↑ 78%
Three biggest swings
WP: 59% → 43%
WP: 72% → 57%
WP: 78% → 64%
Wicket falls
1st innings (Rajasthan Royals)
- DJM Shortrun out · 11/1 · 1.2
- BA Stokescaught · 28/2 · 4.1
- SV Samsonbowled · 90/3 · 10.6
- AM Rahanecaught · 112/4 · 13.4
- JC Buttlerbowled · 150/5 · 17.4
2nd innings (Delhi Daredevils)
- C Munrorun out · 0/1 · 0.1
- GJ Maxwellcaught · 34/2 · 3.4
- RR Pantcaught · 46/3 · 4.6
- V Shankarcaught · 50/4 · 5.4