Match DNA · 2018 · Apr 10, 2018 · MA Chidambaram Stadium, Chennai
Kolkata Knight Riders vs Chennai Super Kings
Chennai Super Kings won by 5 wickets.
POTM · SW Billings
1st innings
Kolkata Knight Riders
202/6
20 overs
2nd innings
Chennai Super Kings
205/5
19.5 overs
Win probability — chasing team
Runs per over
Where the swing came from
Decomposes total absolute |Δp(chase wins)| = 4.62 across the chase (122 balls). Phases partition cleanly; overlays don't.
Event overlays — share % can intersect phases above
Who actually won this
Per-player WP-swing attribution across the chase. Every ball's ΔP is credited to BOTH the batter (who took / didn't take the run) and the bowler (who delivered the ball). Total absolute swing = 492.75.
Batters
Sorted by absolute swing they were on for
RA Jadeja
Chennai Super Kings
146.5swingHelped (+53.5)12 runs · 8 balls30% of swingSR Watson
Chennai Super Kings
85.8swingHurt (-11.7)42 runs · 19 balls17% of swingSW Billings
Chennai Super Kings
79.3swingHelped (+44.9)58 runs · 23 balls16% of swingAT Rayudu
Chennai Super Kings
57.9swingHelped (+7.3)39 runs · 26 balls12% of swingDJ Bravo
Chennai Super Kings
57.7swingHurt (-23.3)12 runs · 5 balls12% of swingMS Dhoni
Chennai Super Kings
40.5swingHurt (-13.1)28 runs · 30 balls8% of swing
Bowlers
Sorted by absolute swing they delivered into
R Vinay Kumar
Kolkata Knight Riders
233.2swingHurt (-29.0)0 wkt · 13 balls47% of swingTK Curran
Kolkata Knight Riders
79.3swingHelped (+3.7)2 wkt · 18 balls16% of swingPP Chawla
Kolkata Knight Riders
64.9swingHurt (-23.9)1 wkt · 25 balls13% of swingAD Russell
Kolkata Knight Riders
44.2swingHurt (-17.3)0 wkt · 24 balls9% of swingKuldeep Yadav
Kolkata Knight Riders
43.0swingHurt (-3.4)1 wkt · 19 balls9% of swingSP Narine
Kolkata Knight Riders
28.2swingHelped (+19.9)1 wkt · 24 balls6% of swing
What if?
counterfactual · v1 (pre-event approximation)Reframes the biggest swings as "what if this hadn't happened" — the WP if the event had gone the other way is approximated by the pre-event state. Not a hard prediction.
Counterfactual · over 19.7
100-point swing on this ball.
Actual after
100%
If not
↓ 0%
Counterfactual · over 19.4
37-point swing on this ball.
Actual after
0%
If not
↑ 37%
Counterfactual · over 19.3
30-point swing on this ball.
Actual after
37%
If not
↑ 66%
Three biggest swings
WP: 0% → 100%
WP: 37% → 0%
WP: 66% → 37%
Wicket falls
1st innings (Kolkata Knight Riders)
- SP Narinecaught · 19/1 · 1.3
- CA Lynnbowled · 51/2 · 5.2
- N Ranacaught · 80/3 · 8.1
- RV Uthapparun out · 81/4 · 8.3
- RK Singhcaught · 89/5 · 9.6
- KD Karthiklbw · 165/6 · 17.5
2nd innings (Chennai Super Kings)
- SR Watsoncaught · 75/1 · 5.5
- AT Rayuducaught · 85/2 · 8.3
- SK Rainacaught · 101/3 · 11.3
- MS Dhonicaught · 155/4 · 16.4
- SW Billingscaught · 184/5 · 18.4